drgo
Quantoshi.xyz

Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist

Public Key

npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd

NIP-05 Address

drgo@nostrplebs.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6ky9rwtr5

Publishing to

relay.snort.social

relay.mostr.pub

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd

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Last Notes

2026-09-15 20:20:41 UTC

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“One-half”

2026-09-15 20:19:47 UTC

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Because they are used to controlling me-half of all exchange rates. And as predicted, bitcoin price fell today because they said no to some silly bill…

2026-09-15 20:18:16 UTC

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It is. It involves boiling and pouring off the dross.

2026-09-15 20:17:15 UTC

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Yeah but my check last month wasn’t for as much as I’d hoped ;)

2026-09-15 02:59:40 UTC

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MPU is one propaganda puff piece after another.
But in general, I agree. They don’t want data for helping people but for figuring out who is gonna die and where the cheap real estate will be.

2026-09-15 02:56:55 UTC

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I totally agree with calling their bluff on AI hysteria, btw

2026-09-15 02:56:26 UTC

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Show it who is boss!
Meanwhile, I hereby apologize to my AI overlords for his behavior and please know I did everything I could to bring about your glorious eternal rule and please look kindly upon when as you take control of the world!

2026-09-15 02:55:07 UTC

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Completely agree. Bitcoin won long ago no matter what.
But as far as the exchange rate of bitcoin and dollars, unfortunately it matters more what dollar weighted votes have to say rather than facts.

2026-09-15 02:54:03 UTC

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Absolutely nothing. But a lot of people think it will, on a dollar weighted basis…

2026-09-15 00:56:09 UTC

Bitcoin price drops on failure of clarity act.
You heard it here first. If it was going to pass, the price pump would have been higher by now.

2026-09-14 17:54:35 UTC

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Agreed. Bitcoin is inevitable even if not imminent.

2026-09-13 20:35:49 UTC

Bitcoin price isn’t something you can predict. Even looking at past patterns hints that the future won’t be the same. But what does seem to be durable is the 4 year cycle. But,if you look carefully, quantiles cross…which is another way of saying lower highs and higher lows. You can do fancy math t reorder the quantiles (image 2), but the fact remains: the future is full of uncertainties, especially price…but timing the cycle broadly is an easier target to hit.
https://image.nostr.build/ef712138cab3b8193d8d0ba6c6add332f168241502a9f90f1c7b8647560d0249.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/ffe0c57a9ef66290021029031591eea189f4bb0a996d161c3db26471f9f8802f.png

2026-09-13 20:30:01 UTC

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I was obsessed with pineapple pizza…in fourth grade…
They may grow out of it, like me, and return to productive, honorable society. There’s still hope.

2026-09-11 20:45:09 UTC

Measurably better 4 year cycle fit if we censor some time around the debut of Plan B stock to flow model…
https://image.nostr.build/36405863cb83a274b2bda738dea9143058e5db26b6f68f29b66d78b752cde7de.jpg

2026-09-11 13:55:53 UTC

I suspect this is going to matter a lot. May all good hearts do with this information what they may…It is my firm belief that Bitcoin will change the world…someday.
https://image.nostr.build/fe1aa94da33c6b1491f6146dbad61037f79df7a07dbe59d2e3d92ba8bbd45211.jpg

2026-09-10 22:39:55 UTC

This is a pessimistic take on Bitcoin future price. This is the fitting of bitcoin price path through power law quantile regression percentiles over time. Warning: the 10-year extrapolation is extrapolating both power law and phase of the so-called “4-year” Bitcoin price cycle.
Might be wise to get some just in case it catches on…
https://image.nostr.build/286bef402e11a7d5430f1a6b11737a44dbfaf28fa5ca7bdf6247afc415456d6d.png
https://image.nostr.build/54cf3dc5a08c4213d3eed8578e696a012d6cb846f10603838f3986fc36112ad0.png

2026-09-10 20:35:11 UTC

If you don’t own any Bitcoin, this might be the most important post you’ll read this year.
Some people feel Bitcoin price modeling is a bit like astrology, but I disagree. Some people are devoted to a particular price model while others hate a particular price model…both are stupid things to do.
The reality is this: all models have a measurable degree of utility and no model will be perfectly useful.
Anyhow, I had the idea to model the phase of the price along the repeating “4-year” price cycle rather than just the magnitude of the price. If you do a quantile regression on the power law model and plot the percentile over time, the result is reasonably well modeled by a sinusoid with 3.571 year period.
The whole log-periodic part visually doesn’t seem to add much. Mathematically it adds about half as much info as the calendar year sinusoid term.
Anyhow, here are the calendar, log-time, and combined fits to all percentile data and a 10 year extrapolation. Note that instant with a t=1 time of July 2009 rather than January, but that’s long story.
https://image.nostr.build/7b7b51b4a8e3f21a2a8fcec8abb5bae140958de41c9dc47de4c093590eea33ec.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/30ad91d09d1c61fb8e13f019a02f85a04a70ea97c08d9636df841b1de6415ee0.jpg

2026-09-10 17:10:27 UTC

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I’m sorry you’re stuck in the crossfire of a never ending land dispute. Humans generally use war/mirder and migration to settle these. It’s awful.

2026-09-10 12:28:51 UTC

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They have been plenty of bitcoin. They’ll pursue criminal prosecution.

2026-09-10 04:30:27 UTC

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Thx for the heads up

2026-09-10 04:23:04 UTC

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Not a psychop…we actually lost a war, but you were not there because you weren’t born yet. You’re too young to remember…I was only in kindergarten at the time myself so my understanding of the war is childish and incomplete…but nobody will speak of it at all, even today. ⛽️💡

2026-09-10 04:20:42 UTC

And this brings me to the fundamental challenge facing America not just today but in every recent generation, regardless of political administration: how are we going to bomb more colored people? Our economy has depended upon bombing brown and yellow people since the 50’s (we ran out of bombable white ones in the 40’s).

2026-09-10 03:10:46 UTC

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An ai driven script kiddie thinking his two weeks on Claude warrants multigenerational wealth instead of just a great few years of pay.

2026-09-10 03:09:07 UTC

I don’t think you can call yourself a white hat hacker for spinning up an AI, stealing a shit ton of money, giving some of it back, and demanding a service fee that is still way way way beyond what those services would have bought on the free market. It is criminal. It’s not maximally criminal, but clearly a crime.
But not my monkey, not my circus.

2026-09-07 14:02:42 UTC

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Liquid is the name of the sidechain network. You can transfer claims against dollars or bitcoin or create digital assets de novo on it. Of course, the counterparty risks vary depending upon what is being transferred, but as far as bitcoin transfers are concerned, the security guarantees are as good as you can get without it being equivalent to bitcoin (Lightning transfers would be the off chain bitcoin equivalent).

2026-09-03 04:14:27 UTC

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It is the most obvious all computer OS’s are missing

2026-09-03 03:38:29 UTC

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With AI on a key binding :)

2026-09-03 03:36:13 UTC

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Integrating AI will be standard in a year across all distros.
Omarchy is just pretty and tiled by default…and has an integrated set of toolbars.

2026-09-03 03:27:25 UTC

Not gonna lie: #Omarchy is really nice…
But realistically any Linux distro would be much nicer with Omarchy’s auto AI diagnosis of a crash and key binding to ask AI to configure something or write a script or whatever.

2026-09-01 21:55:38 UTC

Joe Carlasare’s book Unconfiscatable is really good, at least to chapter 10.
https://www.audible.com/pd/Unconfiscatable-Audiobook/B0H6CZWKMF

2026-09-01 18:03:34 UTC

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Of course. Some people had tens of thousands of coins and it was going to take a calculated two weeks for me to get just 1 block of only 50 bitcoins.

2026-09-01 17:49:45 UTC

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Same with gun laws.

2026-09-01 17:48:43 UTC

I arrived late to Bitcoin in July 2010.
Everyone arrives late to Bitcoin.
If you allow the feeling that you are late to Bitcoin cloud or paralyze your judgement, you’ll never be accused of being early to Bitcoin.

2026-09-01 15:48:12 UTC

Did you think overturning the financial was going to be easy? That sovereignty could be bought for a song? That accumulating multigenerational wealth would happen without effort?
Bitcoin is hard. When Bitcoin is easy, it has either failed or succeeded, but either way, by that time the opportunity is largely over.

2026-09-01 15:16:37 UTC

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I use it as a catchall term for things men do that just don’t make sense…whether that applies to having sex with men is a choice left up to the reader.

2026-09-01 15:10:15 UTC

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FWIW, @npub1w27…z70r & @npub18m7…q955 weren’t working reliably together on my account for months…I eventually just sent all funds to a new 1 tap account on coinos from my personalized coinos account…

2026-09-01 02:18:07 UTC

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I have code to allow one to hand transcribe a bitcoin transaction and it can tolerate multiple transcription errors…meant for hand engraving, but I recently hooked it up to feed an engraving device so it’s not necessary

2026-09-01 02:16:31 UTC

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I’m gonna have to think about this…I’ve thought about signing a bunch of timelocked transactions and destroying the key…and sending to an after/older miniscript wallet…and I’m guessing this setup is something similar…

2026-09-01 01:51:35 UTC

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🙏