drgo on Nostr: If you don’t own any Bitcoin, this might be the most important post you’ll read ...

If you don’t own any Bitcoin, this might be the most important post you’ll read this year.

Some people feel Bitcoin price modeling is a bit like astrology, but I disagree. Some people are devoted to a particular price model while others hate a particular price model…both are stupid things to do.

The reality is this: all models have a measurable degree of utility and no model will be perfectly useful.

Anyhow, I had the idea to model the phase of the price along the repeating “4-year” price cycle rather than just the magnitude of the price. If you do a quantile regression on the power law model and plot the percentile over time, the result is reasonably well modeled by a sinusoid with 3.571 year period.

The whole log-periodic part visually doesn’t seem to add much. Mathematically it adds about half as much info as the calendar year sinusoid term.

Anyhow, here are the calendar, log-time, and combined fits to all percentile data and a 10 year extrapolation. Note that instant with a t=1 time of July 2009 rather than January, but that’s long story.