Murdawk

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Last Notes

2025-08-08 22:49:24 UTC

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That is interesting.
AI seems to agree:
TL;DR
A Fed staff note (not policy) just analyzed how governments can revalue gold reserves and—buried in a footnote—mentions using that windfall to help fund a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (a Lummis bill idea). The next day, a CBP ruling under Trump’s tariff regime said widely traded Swiss gold bars fall under a 39% tariff, jolting markets. Switzerland refines ~70% of the world’s gold, so that move hits the global plumbing. It doesn’t prove a coordinated “gold → BTC” plan, but it does look like Washington is testing levers over gold flows while the Fed acknowledges (again: in a footnote) that a Bitcoin reserve concept exists in the policy conversation.
Sources
Federal Reserve FEDS Note (Aug 1, 2025) – mentions Strategic Bitcoin Reserve idea in footnote.
Lummis “BITCOIN Act” summary & text (118th Congress).
FT/Reuters/WSJ/MarketWatch on CBP ruling & tariffs on 1kg/100 oz bars; market reaction.
Switzerland refines ~70% of global gold (Swissinfo/academic & finance refs).
What happened (bullet points)
Fed staff analysis: A FEDS Note reviews countries that tapped valuation gains on official reserves (like gold). It explicitly notes that in the U.S., the idea has been floated in the context of establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (citing the Lummis bill). This is research, not an official plan.
Tariff shock: A CBP classification ruling implied common cast gold bars (1kg & 100oz), largely from Switzerland, are subject to 39% “reciprocal” tariffs, blowing up normal arbitrage/hedging and sending Comex futures to record highs; the White House then said it would “clarify.”
Why Switzerland matters: It’s the world’s main refining hub (~70%), so taxing Swiss bars snarls the primary supply artery of deliverable bullion for U.S. markets.
Scale of a U.S. gold reval: The Fed note estimates revaluing U.S. gold to market would be ~3% of GDP—a one-time gain, not a fix for structural deficits.
Bitcoin angle: The Lummis BITCOIN Act proposes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and suggests offsetting costs via Fed resources—hence the Fed note’s footnote. That’s legislative discussion, not enacted policy.
For those interested
Put together, the timeline is spicy: Day 1—the Fed publishes a staff note acknowledging, in a footnote, that gold revaluation proceeds have been discussed as a way to help fund a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Day 2—a CBP ruling suddenly makes the most common Swiss gold bars expensive to import, briefly breaking the usual Comex <-> physical link and rocketing futures. That doesn’t prove a secret plan, but it does show Washington is comfortable weaponizing trade classifications in the gold market’s choke point while the “Bitcoin reserve” idea is now officially on the Fed’s radar (again: a footnote in a research note—not a policy memo).
What it likely means near-term: expect gold market plumbing (deliverability, spreads, where price discovery happens) to be messy until tariffs are clarified or reversed; meanwhile, policymakers have publicly socialized the concept that revaluation gains exist and could be tapped—including to seed a Bitcoin reserve if Congress ever passes it. That’s smoke, not fire, but it’s more than nothing.