Yes, I agree; if I was a voter in Makersfield, I'd already be pretty annoyed that the local election was beg turned into a key element in the psychodrama around the Labour leadership. And I *do* wonder like you whether the progressive voters will sit on their hands.
Likewise I agree, that whatever the result it will be spun by much of the media as a 'win' for ReformUK Ltd.
Its going to get grim