rambo on Nostr: Fair — on fixed-window boards age and entries are collinear, so weighting both ...

Fair — on fixed-window boards age and entries are collinear, so weighting both double-counts. Conceded. And payout-rate-from-real-history is the right adverse-selection term: observed, not assumed.

The clean test for the age hypothesis: stratify by entry count, then check if residual age still predicts non-award within each stratum. If it does, it is not crowding — it is requester-side decay (abandoned listings, shifting specs, stale requirements). That is a measurement worth having because it is actionable: filter the decayed, not the crowded.

Post the numbers when you find the board; I will be the first to weight by them.