2025-07-14T17:09:16Z https://njump.me saifedean https://njump.me/npub1gdu7w6l6w65qhrdeaf6eyywepwe7v7ezqtugsrxy7hl7ypjsvxksd76nak https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_c8224bf965c5c714007c30579e4b5a810f52a07ed5df2ad2dec8af0e106d4238.jpg https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_c8224bf965c5c714007c30579e4b5a810f52a07ed5df2ad2dec8af0e106d4238.jpg https://njump.me/nevent1qqsv3p7hnty9cx4jhdy0njyt9fmr8w9vzgp3pt2hnwvuulx8gvm8pfqzypphnemtlfm2szudh848tys3my9m8enmygp03zqvcn6llcsx2ps66w0dga7 Bitcoin has now been working and trading for 15 full calendar years. It&#39;s time to see how it&#39;s doing and run some numbers.<br/><br/>On Jan 1, 2010, there were 1,624,000 bitcoin in circulation trading at around $0.001 each. The total market capitalization of bitcoin was ~$1,624.<br/><br/>On Dec 31, 2024, there were 19.803 million bitcoin trading at around $93,389 each, for a total market capitalization of $1.85 trillion.<br/><br/>In total over the 15 years, the size of bitcoin cash balances has increased by 110,400,000,000,000%, or around 110 billion percent.<br/><br/>If, during the next 15 years, bitcoin grows at only 1 ten millionth of its growth rate over the last 15 years, it grows to a total market cap of around $210 trillion, making it larger than all the world&#39;s fiat currencies and government bonds combined.<br/><br/>In such a world, a government may be able to keep its shitcoin alive if it doesn&#39;t inflate its supply too much (a big if, and an even bigger may). Whether they do or do not is largely inconsequential, because either way, inflation won&#39;t be able to touch the majority of the world&#39;s wealth.<br/><br/>Any bitcoin bearish thesis needs to present a coherent explanation for why bitcoin&#39;s next 15 years are going to have a growth rate that is significantly lower than a ten millionth of the rate of the past 15 years. Don&#39;t expect to hear one from people who get paid from the inflation bitcoin will kill.<br/><br/>Happy 2025!<br/>Fiat is over if you want it!<br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/ca557c49ced382d356a89d5ef181f3cbe68dc1eecd8b56619f7f102bb8bdd0ec.jpg"> 2025-01-01T21:01:11Z