Rob1Ham / Rob Hamilton is on Nostr

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2026-02-20 19:49:53 UTC

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🤡

2026-02-15 15:12:26 UTC

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Have you already implemented this approach, or are these future improvements?

2025-11-08 22:26:57 UTC

I have now fully open sourced the code which creates this on-chain BIP-444 futures contract!
https://blossom.primal.net/8a4543280ffb1224d9e43898881495e48143597486ec8b42e2b72e97f7f41441.png
The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address).
Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation.
The contract is built as follows:
The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active.
We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short.
The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception.
https://blossom.primal.net/cf29c62d960c09fbd17b21b302cd259e1cd875ab86eedfb7a59b00c2e3e3bd53.png
The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF
https://blossom.primal.net/8b83fc49881632450d651008af9e95175dfec8a815d9dd6d272f10bb4a18cd26.png
The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf.
https://blossom.primal.net/e6e64adf006007d8035b0578b35e75d4c9dfbd35846d581b317d2ab34cff91a5.png
The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates.
So to summarize:
- If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
- If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood.
With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating.
You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well.
Github: https://github.com/Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures
Address: https://mempool.space/signet/address/tb1p07flh4waghmkeep0l20nf2tyn4tw9wy3w4j5vkrf6mue9ddtakgsgc5clr
Anyone who wants to take the BIP-444 WILL activate side, let me know! The Author of the BIP has agreed to this, I have already asked for a larger bet size beyond the 1 BTC I initially proposed, but I have more!