Nostr notes by kyle

I’m bullish on umbrel becoming the ultimate AI assistant some ...

2026-09-03T15:00:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…fext
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I’m bullish on umbrel becoming the ultimate AI assistant some day; there’s so much potential there

Nostr event nevent1qqszz8nukpcup8m7wa044cu37u7x6w0fekw38ktw7rze8lvgy70pz6szyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpulggg3q

2026-09-03T14:43:00Z

Gen Z male return to religion taken from a Kierkegaardian ...

2026-08-30T19:38:42Z

Gen Z male return to religion taken from a Kierkegaardian perspective:

If “levelling” in 1846 was the press manufacturing the public, these algorithms are far worse, as they level one’s identity into a feed of rapidly changing content with zero internal standard

It makes sense to see young men, raised in an algorithmically “leveled” society, turn towards more disciplined forms of Christianity

Experiencing performed opinions and constant “dunking”, with nothing at stake, is the feat of dialectics we see in skill and cleverness replacing courage, decision, and action.

What’s interesting is the return is inherently “levelling” itself via the same driving force of algorithms! “Traditional masculinity” and religious content are levelling mechanisms themselves. If a rivival runs through podcasts and short form content, it can’t be different from “the public” - it’s just a new “crowd”, which can create another condition of “reflection” without action (true belief/faith).

A new “feat of skill” that looks like passion from the outside

I don’t have clear takeaway from this, and I’m not as well read as I’d like to be on the topic, but I was reading “The Present Age” and this parallel came about

Who am I even talking to anyways? this is a notes app

More of a time-to-value thing I think; how much time do I need to ...

2026-04-21T19:32:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…w08h
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More of a time-to-value thing I think; how much time do I need to spend in order to get entertained?

Also a function of effort as well; generationally not very good at “seeking” things out, unless extremely motivated, due to usefulness of algorithms

1: awareness 2: value prop and messaging is terrible, bad ...

2026-04-16T19:44:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…2464
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1: awareness
2: value prop and messaging is terrible, bad marketing overall
3: too much technical jargon at the forefront of most clients, needs to be abstracted

Yep

2026-03-25T17:29:00Z

In reply to nevent1q…gncf
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Yep

Yep, there’s so many more appealing parts than censorship to ...

2026-03-25T17:28:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…mxg2
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Yep, there’s so many more appealing parts than censorship to normies, should be leading with those

No way! Thats great

2026-03-22T01:47:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…52p2
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No way! Thats great

Every 15 years, the tech industry "rediscovers" a thesis ...

2026-03-12T18:07:04Z

Every 15 years, the tech industry "rediscovers" a thesis from the 70s - 90s, gives it a sexier name, and raises millions in VC funding for it

In this case, it's context layers for AI systems, which are 30 years old.

This can feel like such a niche place, so I’m always interested ...

2026-03-05T15:10:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…l3rx
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This can feel like such a niche place, so I’m always interested to hear somebody’s journey here and I’m somewhat inspired by everyone in a way as well! Appreciate you sharing your story and welcome

Hello Nostr, if you have not read anything by Neil Postman, I ...

2026-03-05T03:56:50Z

Hello Nostr, if you have not read anything by Neil Postman, I highly recommend you do.

“Amusing ourselves to death” is such a fantastic read, and I frequently revisit it.

Has anyone built an agent on Nostr that doesn’t post, but strictly consumes/navigates to find interesting content, and surfaces it to you? I feel like LLMs can truly be “the great filter” and “the great curator” we need to no longer be inundated with endless feeds.

What’d you work on at Apple? Just curious

2026-03-05T03:51:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…yp54
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What’d you work on at Apple? Just curious

back after a social break - wtf happened to nostr? is this all ...

2026-02-24T19:04:07Z

back after a social break - wtf happened to nostr?

is this all because of openclaw?

A new alternative to TikTok that’s algo free, already has 1m+ ...

2026-02-12T03:46:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…x7ru
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A new alternative to TikTok that’s algo free, already has 1m+ users from what I understand

I was working on something I thought would help but unfortunately ...

2026-02-11T15:00:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…aajh
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I was working on something I thought would help but unfortunately had to focus on other things. Essentially wanted to use a combo of clustering algorithms + LLMs to topic model all of nostr and create topical relays and clients focused on particular types of conversations.

very similar to how subreddits work, but without any moderators. The clustering algos/LLMs would organize content based on embeddings (replacing moderators) and it would be much easier to find the stuff you care about without knowing who to follow.

clustering might be better bc it's not as "black box", but it's a great way to use machine learning without going down the recommendation algorithm slope

unfortunately got away from it - but wanted to make something on ...

2026-02-11T14:51:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…umfz
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unfortunately got away from it - but wanted to make something on Nostr that used clustering to automatically create "subreddits" and organize conversations; basically unsupervised Reddit.

Could also use LLMs to do smaller matching processes, but you'd be able to essentially post into the void, not having to know "where" to post, and it gets automatically sorted into the most relevant place based on semantics

Could even do real-time group chats and stuff; blindly post something, if somebody else posts something similar, you all get dumped into a closed room to talk about it

I'm less interested in that, more interested in the claim ...

2026-02-11T14:47:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…8mmq
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I'm less interested in that, more interested in the claim "[protocols] don't reliably deliver what we need for a mainstream, video-forward app"

I'm not too familiar

Hey Vitor, would love your take on UpScrolled? They’re taking ...

2026-01-30T04:31:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…5wur
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Hey Vitor, would love your take on UpScrolled? They’re taking off because of the TikTok algo drama, but didn’t know how accurate this statement was (also noticed they didn’t mention nostr)

Nostr devs I need your input on UpScrolled “UpScrolled is now ...

2026-01-30T04:24:23Z

Nostr devs I need your input on UpScrolled

“UpScrolled is now the most downloaded mobile app in the United States! In the last hour it surpassed ChatGPT, Gemini and Threads”.

Specifically not built on a protocol (didn’t mention nostr) for performance reasons.

Thoughts?

That’s unfortunate

2026-01-21T19:10:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…lgxs
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That’s unfortunate

The community or somebody in particular ?

2026-01-21T18:51:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…nd02
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The community or somebody in particular ?

Why does Vitalik refuse to acknowledge what already exists? I’m ...

2026-01-21T14:41:46Z

Why does Vitalik refuse to acknowledge what already exists?

I’m here, using it now

https://x.com/vitalikbuterin/status/2013884907659944205?s=46

gemini 3 deep research is ridiculously good ...

2026-01-17T04:31:34Z

gemini 3 deep research is ridiculously good

Thoughts on specifically edge AI hardware? Was going to do a deep ...

2026-01-06T15:36:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…94z6
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Thoughts on specifically edge AI hardware? Was going to do a deep dive on this soon, I just see the future being local as specialized hardware starts to emerge. Found some cool stuff related to wide bandgap, new materials science, and compute-in-memory too

where I'll be placing my bets in 2026 #naddr1qv…4lkx

2025-12-27T18:03:05Z

where I'll be placing my bets in 2026

quoting
naddr1qv…4lkx

While building a social media analytics product, I’ve been trying to get off of social media myself. I spend a lot of time building on and deeply thinking about the firehose of the world’s information, and the last thing I needed after a long day of work was to consume a firehose of the world’s information, on a blindingly small device. I needed something slower diverted my attention towards books. I spent the year reading dozens of books about the history of civilization / anthropology, the history of religion and materials from different philosophies / schools of thought, romances and novels that explored the human condition, and preferred long-form articles that dove into current events over short headlines. I didn’t have a “goal” in mind, I was just following my interests. It was common for me to quit a book halfway through, pick up something else that was more interesting at the time, and come back to it later – I operated on pure curiosity, no rules at all.

By studying the past, I became extremely interested in the future. The future of social networks, the future of attention and entertainment, the future money, and the future of geopolitical power. In doing so, I’ve conceived 4 thematic “bets” that will act as a guiding thesis over the next 1-5 years. I’ve split these 4 bets into 2 themes, allocating 2 bets to each; culture and macro. My cultural bets are a fairly subjective assessment of society, approached from a historical and critical lens, focused on the evolution media and its impact on humans. My macro bets are investment-focused themes that will guide my investment strategies over the coming years.

Cultural bets can be summarized as an epistemological rebalancing:

Gravitas and Discernment

Macro bets can be summarized as a materialist pivot:

Reality and Hard Money

In essence, these bets reflect a systemic pivot toward authenticity, decisive truth-finding, tangible fundamentals, and sound money, in response to what I consider extremes of the past era. When I started writing this, I just wanted a way to analyze my own thoughts, but in doing so I was inspired to explore each bet in depth, identifying potentially measurable indicators of progress, and doing my best to distinguish secular vs. cyclical dynamics. What started as a 30 minute thought experiment turned into a week-long journey over the holiday.

Here we go…

Gravitas

“Water, water, every where, And all the boards did shrink; Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink.” – Samuel Taylor Coleridge

I believe every medium has an implicit theory of knowledge, and when that medium dominates a certain point of time, it impacts how populations define what is truth:

Print: “I’ll believe it if it’s rigorously argued, extensively evidenced, and thoughtfully curated.”

TV: “I’ll believe it if it’s vivid, evokes a familiar emotion, and easy to recall.”

Social feeds: “I’ll believe it if my social graph approves, it repeats, and it’s easy to share.”

This happens because mediums don’t only change how information is consumed, they actually shape the content that’s produced. A print-dominant world produces content that thrives in print; cross-examined, detailed, and not afraid of depth. A TV-dominant world produces content that thrives on TV; vivid imagery, emotional provocation, and entertaining. Compared to print, TV makes certain kinds of truth dominate, that may not resonate in print; image, charisma, and immediacy. Social media experienced on mobile devices expands upon the TV and amplifies its truths – by transferring the power of video production from production studios to individuals, by removing physical boundaries and making entertainment portable, and by leveraging advanced algorithms to route “viral” content. The mobile social experience is vivid immediacy on steroids.

Paradoxically, the removal of physical boundaries "shrinks" the global population into a tribal-like state of close proximity. How so? Before the Telegraph, the information one consumed on a daily basis was restricted to such information that was easy to disseminate and/or fairly relevant to an individual, such as being directly transferred from somebody within your social circle, or read directly from a local article in print. Typically, there was no easy way to receive information across medium or long distances, unless specifically intended to be (like mail). Social media is akin to the Telegraph; we are able to transmit content to strangers over long distances, with those strangers capable of providing an immediate response. Because of this, the average social media user is inundated with non-relevant, non-actionable information, that previously, prior to the Telegraph or Telegraph-adjacent technologies, would’ve never hit their eyes or ears. Additionally, our personal lives are now hardly personal – they’re increasingly digital, and therefore subject to judgement by the masses, shrinking what our brains consider a physical distance. Judgement and another’s immediate opinion previously required a 3-6 foot range, but now, has no distance restriction. One is able to involve themselves in the tribe’s affairs from either 3 feet or 3,000 miles away — the distance doesn’t restrict immediate participation. Perhaps you’ve heard the term “global village” – this is what we are. But with social media, we’re able to consume much more of the world’s information, on a 6 inch device, with content that’s algorithmically distributed, optimized to keep us entertained, and that’s where things differ from before.

As Postman argues, when a society’s main information channel is entertainment-first, serious topics get forced into entertainment formats. The result isn’t “lies” so much as trivialization: even true things get processed as, and optimized for, content.

I believe that the “content-ification” of everything has resulted in a few things:

Everything is a performance. Across most public domains, the payoff to performance rises: more of life is staged, recorded, and judged through mobile perception. Our personal lives can be thought of as moments to be captured. Our profiles can be evaluated based on the perceptions of others. The media we consume is likely optimized for memorability and “vibes”, instead of depth and genuine coherence.

Truth is heavily decontextualized. News, statistics, and general entertainment increasingly arrives as decontextualized fragments of a whole; urgency and speed of delivery is rewarded (monetarily, see TMZ) while comprehension and accuracy becomes less common and more unevenly distributed. When grabbing and holding attention trumps substance and clarity, we can feel informed while becoming less able to explain causes, tradeoffs, or history. A worldview can be formed, strictly composed of soundbites.

The public becomes less capable of sustained seriousness. I really don’t know if people are becoming more dumb than they were before (I’ve seen studies showing no negative consequence, but I am concerned about the impact of short-form content, based on anecdotal evidence), but because the dominant medium trains a different kind of mind (micro-pattern recognition and emotional responses), a low tolerance for boredom is created. Serious things, when not “content-ified” can become boring in comparison, and I believe this is detrimental to a society that wishes to progress.

We have confident but unformed opinions on everything. Lots of opinions but less ability to defend them rigorously. More “feelings about issues,” less philosophy, history, and serious moral reasoning.

The net effect is a higher cost of seriousness: sustained attention, standards, and principled disagreement become harder to maintain at scale. We’re less likely to seriously spend our time, we’re less likely to seriously decide what is valuable or important to us, we’re less likely to seriously have the courage to be wrong about something, and we’re less likely to seriously set standards and quality thresholds that exclude some views or behaviors as worse, for fear of backlash from the global village.

If McLuhan’s reversal theory holds, we should expect certain benefits to invert past a saturation point; the question is where that threshold sits and who benefits. I believe we’re seeing this reversal right now, particularly with mobile devices and social networks:

“More connection” has become loneliness, mistrust, and tribalism

“More information” has become less knowledge, and more reactionary

“More personalization” has become a form of ‘sameness’ via algorithmic convergence within groups / subcultures

These reversals are the basis for my first bet: Gravitas. Within this framework, gravitas refers to anything that attempts to be of an original posture, approaches something with intentionality, and values truth or authenticity.

Indicators:

Offline and 3rd Spaces. Strava reports new clubs nearly quadrupled in 2025, reaching ~1 million total clubs; hiking clubs grew 5.8x and running clubs 3.5x, with club-organized events up 1.5x YoY. NRPA’s 2024 national survey explicitly notes Gen Zers are most likely to have visited a park in the past month, and 71% of Gen Z rate proximity to parks as highly important when choosing where to live, prioritizing a public third place. Additionally, Eventbrite’s research reports surges like fitness events up 130% and attendance up 146% in 2024, with “sober-curious” events up 92% with attendance up 51%. Axios has cited Eventbrite data, that “coffee raves/coffee clubbing” events increased 478% YoY. What’s happening here? Particularly amongst the younger generations, loneliness + mental health issues lead to people seeking low-pressure ways to meet in real life, less alcohol leads people to more physically-minded groups like walking clubs or coffee events, and interest-based or hobby-based identities allow people to find their group online and meet offline. If you go to Google Trends and search, “Social Media Addiction”, you’ll find that it’s indexing at an all-time high. There’s a serious demand for offline and intentional spaces.

Deepfakes & Fraud. The proliferation of AI-generated “deepfakes” is a leading indicator of the authenticity crisis. For example, Deloitte predicts that generative AI could drive U.S. fraud losses from $12.3 billion in 2023 to $40 billion by 2027, a 32% annual growth rate. It’s not just deepfakes the general public is concerned about, it’s general misinformation as well. Surveys show growing public concern about misinformation. In 2024, ~70–76% of people in the US and Europe said it’s becoming difficult to verify online content’s trustworthiness, and over 80% believe tools to authenticate content are essential. As a result, nearly 1/3 of respondents have curtailed social media use due to misinformation.

I believe there are potentially cyclical or regional fluctuations to these concepts as well. Conversations around misinformation tends to spike around elections, pandemics, or crises, prompting short-term surges in fact-checking and public responses. Third spaces may see rises and falls based on a given city’s cost of living or net increase/decrease in population. However, each cycle leaves society more aware of the issues, gradually ratcheting up a baseline demand for increased connection and reliable provenance.

When nobody knows what’s real, anything that delivers authenticity (such as irl events + identity-based gatherings) or truth becomes valuable. In summary, my gravitas bet is a bet that the coming years will see more offline communities, varying methods of verification or truth-seeking, and authentic / ideology-based groups becoming something of substantial value and potentially a competitive advantage for businesses.

Discernment

“Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?” – T.S. Eliot

It’d be impossible to talk about the future without bringing up artificial intelligence and the impact it will have on the world. What intrigues me the most about AI isn’t the output, productivity gains, or intentions for how it’s used, but the environment in which it’s used and how human and societal incentives are intertwined.

One could argue, that on average, humans care about some form of attention, status, coordination, and trust. Which of these does AI reward? Whenever new technology is introduced, a small subset of the population sets out to become “masters”, and these masters end up demanding attention, status, coordination, and trust. Examples:

Print elites = writers, editors, scholars, lawyers

TV elites = producers, entertainers, hosts, anchors

Social elites = creators, influencers, algorithm / attention-hackers

AI-era elites = ???

I think we focus a lot on what AI is “good at”, and not as much on what AI as a medium rewards within the human condition. How does one become fluent in its grammar, as opposed to its content?

This leads me to my second bet: Discernment

When AI increases the speed of production while driving down costs, it will lead to near infinite output of everything; everything will become saturated, including insights. What makes a good AI analyst? What makes a good AI content creator? What makes a good AI SDR? Each discipline and each domain has its own set of metrics that have historically determined good and bad. Similar to the scientific method, in business, you have hypotheses and test them. You continuously run variations of hypotheses to test which approach maximizes or minimizes whichever metric is deemed the determining factor of success. AI has the ability to run an infinite number of hypotheses, simultaneously, at a much lower cost than it would be to have a human run a fraction of them. What’s the result? More output, more numbers, more insights, etc. It appears to me as if the “message” of AI is production.

When the message is production, and the cost of production of such items drops to near-zero, the value (and accountability) migrates from the producer to the editor/adjudicator (“everyone’s a critique”, for real). Discernment is the ability to stake your reputation on a decision, and whoever can make good decisions, blending taste + judgment + accountability, will master the AI medium and demand attention, status, coordination, and trust.

What does this look like in practice? Something that removes choices, collapses ambiguity, and tells people what to or what not to look at. Something that enforces decisions and resolves all options and conflicts.

Indicators:

What is Truth? We are witnessing a clash of old, linear truth-finding through experts and editors with the new, instantaneous, crowdsourced community notes. If you have access to community notes on X, you’ll see people fighting over what the truth is, and what context distills truth. AI is becoming proposed as part of the solution by acting as a real-time sense-making assistant (sorting truth from falsehood in milliseconds), redesigning our institutions (education, media, governance) for an age where information is instantaneous, non-deterministic, and is sometimes entirely incorrect. Enter prediction markets: moving from niche experimentation to mainstream financial infrastructure, markets such as Polymarket have processed over $10.8 billion in transactions this year. If there was any greater indicator, outside of trading volume, Polymarket reached a $9 billion valuation as well, backed by a $2 billion investment from the parent company of the NYSE. Prediction markets can be viewed as somewhat of a “crystal ball”; if you truly believed something with all your heart, it’d be easy to put money on it – if there’s money on the ground, pick it up! Prediction markets have become a “truth-seeking” rail, with markets covering politics, sports, and music.

Taste. If there was a buzzword that dominated tech conversations in 2025, it was “taste”. “In a world where everyone uses the same AI tools, taste becomes the critical differentiator. Creativity in the AI era will rely less on executing tasks and more on infusing work with feeling, context, and taste.” Not only is taste bleeding into human tasks, it’s a core foundation for model development itself. The Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) market is a $6 billion market, estimated to grow at a CAGR of 16% through 2032, driven by the "critical need for safe, reliable, and human-aligned AI". This means that AI doesn’t just need human-reinforcement for model training to help the AI solve problems or execute tasks, but it needs human-reinforcement to help the AI solve problems and execute tasks in a way a human would. Human judgement, human discernment, and human taste is a notable, lacking quality in most models (not just LLMs) today.

Smart Contracts. Smart contracts are jurisprudence in code. Their adoption expresses a collective move toward instantaneous, trustless adjudication, especially in systems where traditional law is slow, biased, or jurisdictionally irrelevant. As AI agents begin to coordinate and engage in commerce with each other, trusted, third party adjudicators and technological rails for trust become important; smart contracts and agentic protocols fill that gap. When analyzing the number of smart contracts deployed on Ethereum in 2016 (123,376) to 2025 (69,788,231), there’s been a 566x increase, with average monthly smart contract deployments rising from ~55,326 in December 2023 to ~267,798 by December 2025, a 120% CAGR. In an increasingly non-deterministic, high-output world of agents, instantaneous and codified sets of rules and outcomes will become more important than ever.

In an era of infinite choices and rampant ambiguity, the ability to adjudicate – to swiftly and correctly decide what is true or what action to take – becomes valuable. Value will accrue to those who can tune out frenzy and ascertain the reality, or to those who build the tools that enable others to do the same at scale. “Discernment” here implies both the judgment of truth and the quality of decisiveness. The rise of AI has supercharged content creation and data analysis, but humans and institutions still face verification bottlenecks (AI said it, but is it true?) and decision paralysis (AI can produce infinite sets of opportunities/ideas). I bet that in an age of infinite information and optionality, the economic return on the 'final decision' will skyrocket because the cost of being wrong is higher than ever.

Reality

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.” — Winston Churchill

Apologies for what might seem as a carbon-copy of Dalio, but I can’t help but come to the same conclusion.

After WWII, the historically powerful countries of the world were decimated. Millions of working-age men were dead, villages and cities destroyed, entire industries depleted, and political ideologies debated across all of the major powers. The USA found itself in a very unique position. Yes, it was coming out of the Great Depression, but it didn’t have nearly the same types of problems, nor the same severity of problems, as the rest of the world. Already on the rise, this enabled the USA to take over the spotlight and become a global superpower (I’m over-simplifying a lot). We invested in industries, produced many goods, and had a strong military. This resulted in a strong currency, incentivizing further investment, and so on…

But in 1971 we did something that forever changed the course of the American economy; the U.S. suspended gold convertibility; the dollar became fully fiat – no longer redeemable for gold at a fixed rate. Its ‘backing’ was now institutional: taxation capacity, legal tender status, and credibility of the state and central bank. This removed an external convertibility constraint and expanded policy flexibility. Over time, that flexibility has tended to favor debt expansion and asset-price sensitivity. Why? When financing constraints are softened or removed, political systems have historically, and pretty reliably, chosen more spending and more leverage than they would under hard constraints. In other words, the US Treasury had the greenlight make the money printer go ‘brrrrr’, because we no longer needed to have the required levels of gold reserves to back dollars for future exchange. Since then, our debt-GDP ratio has skyrocketed, our currency is increasingly debased, and our global currency reserve status has been slowly deteriorating (debatable). I’ve oversimplified things a lot here…there’s a difference between fiscal dominance and monetary policy, CPI and asset inflation, reserve currency status vs domestic purchasing power, and constraint (politics) vs capability (printing). But is the USA still dominant? Most metrics point to ‘yes’, however, I believe the elements of decline create a strong argument.

We’re at an interesting point in time where many are calling these elements of decline out publicly. “Make America Great Again”, means different things to different people, but the existence of the slogan implies the existence of awareness of some form of decline. Can the USA turn the ship around? Can we reverse the trajectory we’re currently on? I’m not sure, but I know we’ll try.

This is the basis for my third bet: Reality

I believe we’ll see more volatility, more geopolitical risk, more industrial policy (reshoring, subsidies, tariffs), and more defense + security spend. When countries are desperate to prevent power-loss, history shows money is concentrated in the following areas:

Defense tech / dual-use technology = ISR, cyber, supply chain security, drones

Energy security = grid reliability, nuclear and gas infrastructure, critical minerals

Domestic manufacturing enablers = automation, robotics, industrial software

Insurance / risk transfer = specialty insurance, catastrophe modeling

When shit hits the fan, things get ‘real’. It’s the real stuff that dictates the trajectory and strength of our country’s economy (although not necessarily its currency). By real I mean the basics: food, water, energy, and defense. The major differences between now and historical attempts are that we are experiencing one of the greatest technological revolutions (AI) while participating in a global and digital economy. I don’t think this changes the outcomes, but only the speed and severity of volatility; dramatic responses (in both directions) via information highways.

Indicators:

Defense and Security Spending. There was a notable shift in many countries’ spending targets after recent geopolitical conflicts. Global military expenditure hit a record ~$2.7 trillion in 2025, reflecting the largest annual increase in the last 3 decades. The US, for instance, passed large appropriation increases for defense and for technologies labeled as “strategic.” There are early signs of growth here: defense and aerospace firms have seen backlogs rise with new orders, and venture capital is flowing into defense tech startups (e.g. companies focusing on AI, drones, and cybersecurity for the DoD). Over time, an increase in the number of new defense contractors or startups, and faster adoption of cutting-edge tech by the Pentagon, would indicate the U.S. is successfully marshaling its industrial base.

Energy / Infra. Domestic oil & gas production, renewable energy capacity buildout, nuclear energy investments, and grid reliability metrics; the core of this “reality” pivot. There's been a boom in EV battery plants, solar panel factories, and wind farms. Utility-scale renewable capacity saw record growth in 2023–24 (analysts estimate a ~25% jump in annual installations), and utilities have revised plans to add dozens of gigawatts more wind and solar than previously expected, taking advantage of IRA incentives. On the fossil fuel side, US oil and gas production remains robust: Oil production in the US has continued to hit record highs this year, rising to 44,000 barrels per day during the month to a record 13.84 million bpd, according to EIA data. Another indicator is a renewed interest in nuclear energy. For the first time in decades, new nuclear reactors are coming online in the US: Plant Vogtle’s Unit 3 in Georgia started operation in 2023, the first newly built reactor in 30+ years, with Unit 4 close behind. Additionally, federal programs are funding small modular reactor (SMR) designs, VC dollars are pouring into different parts of the nuclear supply chain, such as General Matter, the startup taking on the plutonium enrichment bottleneck, and AI continues to demand record-levels of energy, which are, in my opinion, best supported by nuclear energy.

Manufacturing and Supply Chain Relocation. The bet implies a reversal (or at least a halt) of extreme globalization. Since 2021, the US has seen a few signs of a manufacturing revival. On one hand, their hands are tied due to heavy tariffs from Trump, on the other hand, there appears to be both private and public investment accelerating the change. In fact, private construction spending on manufacturing facilities has roughly tripled in just a few years, from around $75 billion in 2021 to about $225 billion by late 2023; an unprecedented surge to record levels. Even after adjusting for inflation, manufacturing construction spending by early 2024 was more than double its pre-pandemic levels. What’s happening in employment? Roughly 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added in the US from early 2021 to early 2024, with many of these jobs are in areas like the Midwest and Southeast, such as Ohio receiving with Intel’s $20 billion fab investment, and Michigan securing new battery and EV parts plants.

The Reality bet is driven by both secular forces and cyclical triggers. Secularly, it reflects the end of a unique post-Cold War period. From roughly 1990 to 2020, much of the world enjoyed relative geopolitical calm (no global world wars), hyper-globalization (increasingly open / efficient trade routes), and macroeconomic tailwinds (falling interest rates / stableish inflation). This enabled a focus on intangible growth – software, finance, services – while neglecting “boring” physical industries. However, I think secular trends have shifted: the rise of China as a peer competitor, climate change pressures on resources, and technological maturation (AI requires more power/resources to deploy at scale) all demand a more grounded approach. We may be entering a multi-decade era of strategic competition similar to a new Cold War, which elevates defense and industrial policy to the surface. Similarly, secular demographic trends (aging populations) put focus on productivity which potentially requires robotics and automation tying into domestic manufacturing pushes.

Hard Money

Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed.” – Francis Bacon

This is where I might really lose most people. I had a hard time articulating my thoughts and a fair amount of this analysis was rooted in anecdotal evidence and “vibes”, leading to more “jumps-to-conclusions" than I’d like in an argument, but it is what it is.

People hate billionaires. I don’t personally, but I understand why people do. Millions of people can’t afford rent, groceries, the ability to take care of themselves and their children, and are unable to afford a home. It’s impossible for many people to save, because they’re living paycheck to paycheck, and the little that is saved is hardly accumulating any interest. In a world like that, long-term investments and 30+ year time horizons are much less attractive (yes they’ve always been, but I believe they are even more so now than ever) than riskier, short-term investments, and as we’re witnessing now, literal gambling. Billions of dollars are being poured into extremely risky markets with hopes of making a quick buck. This isn’t new at all by the way; get rich quick schemes and betting have been around forever. What I believe is different than before is the “why”.

Particularly within Gen Z, I’m witnessing a nihilistic approach to life, where nothing matters, so you might as well do everything you can to get rich and have zero shame in doing so. This can appear in various formats, such as: live streaming violent pranks on Twitch to go viral, engagement farming or rage-baiting on social media to earn payouts, or rugpulling + pump and dump schemes in the crypto markets.

Nothing matters, just get the bag one way or another. There’s no such thing as shame or embarrassment, just get the bag one way or another. Attention is all you need.

The underlying theme here is that when it’s hard for somebody to participate in society or participate in an economy, they will have little interest in doing so, and will turn to alternative sources of income and alternative sources of attention, those of which are riskier and less regulated.

Where does this lead? Below are a few predictions, pulling on the three previous analyses and bets:

Regulation and surveillance grows. Age gating, identity verification, payment restrictions, and platform liability. We’ve seen it already with the Online Safety Act; governments will step in and enforce surveillance under the guise of protecting people from themselves. Although these new regulations seem harmless, they enable the foundations of social credit scores and state surveillance of all financial transactions, diminishing an individual’s right to privacy and diminishing individual liberty. I think these regulations will impact the shared, social spaces we currently enjoy.

Regulations/surveillance + AI will reinforce the reversal to “seriousness”. Following a flood of AI-generated content and harsh online regulations, online life will begin to feel hollow and people will look for an escape. People will pay for identity, community, discipline, and embodied life. We’ll see the return of clubs rooted in ideology, communities with high standards and values, more products enabling self-discipline and accountability, and new forms of education and apprenticeship. As society continues to “amuse itself to death”, competence becomes rare, leaving a wide-open opportunity to gain a competitive edge: reading primary sources, writing, reasoning probabilistically, and executing consistently. That combination is increasingly scarce and provides younger people with extreme leverage in any market in the near-term. In the long-term, we’ll see these habits become productized and executed at scale with AI.

Money will change. AI and tech bubbles will burst, recessions will decimate regions, and yet the gap between the haves and have-nots will continue to widen. How is that possible? The infinite money machine artificially props up assets and destroys savings. Equities rise while the currency falls. Those with the means to purchase equities (the haves) ride the wave, those without the means to purchase equities (the have-nots) are destroyed by inflation, never able to catch up. The problem won’t be that we can’t produce enough goods or create enough jobs, the problem won’t be that we won’t have a strong enough military to enforce our reserve currency, the problem won’t be that we won’t have intelligent and innovative minds to foster extreme economic growth, the problem will be that our money is fundamentally broken. In econ 101 you learn about the 3 principles of a good money: medium of exchange, unit of account, and a store of value. The US Dollar is 2 of those things: a medium of exchange and a unit of account. It is not a store of value. As the average person and institutions look to solve the major wealth inequality problem of the country, they will be forced to look at our currency as the culprit, the money itself is the problem. This isn’t an endorsement for Bitcoin, Silver, or Gold specifically, but I do believe institutions will look to some form of hard money for store of value out of pure necessity.

That leaves me with my fourth and final bet: Hard Money.

Indicators:

Inflation. A core indicator is the inflation rate (CPI or similar measures) and the trajectory of currency purchasing power. Inflation spiked to multi-decade highs in 2021–2022 across many countries, cutting into the real value of fiat savings. A leading indicator for Hard Money momentum is persistent above-target inflation or volatile inflation expectations. If consumers and investors stop trusting central banks to maintain 2% inflation (for example) and start expecting higher inflation long-term, that mindset shift will boost demand for inflation hedges found in hard money.

Debt. The US now has a debt of about 6× its annual revenue, and net interest costs are ~20% of revenue (over $1 trillion annually), a situation some economists describe as unsustainable without either default, austerity, or more printing. I know people have been saying this for years and nothing has happened (I mean, look at Japan), but another indicator (specifically for the US) is when the bond market starts revolting. Rising yields on government bonds even as growth slows, indicates investors demand a risk premium for possible inflation/default. This happened in 2022–2023 (US 10-year yields rose above 4% despite some recession fears), and those kinds of yield surges relative to inflation show declining trust in long-term monetary stability.

Metals and Cryptocurrency Demand. Gold and Silver prices hitting record highs (in nominal and importantly in real or alternative-currency terms) signals eroding faith in fiat. Central bank purchases of gold are an especially telling indicator, as these are the institutions managing fiat, yet even they have been diversifying. In 2025, global central banks and governments are on track to purchase approximately 900 tonnes of gold. This follows a record-breaking multi-year trend where central banks have bought over 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022. A similar story is happening with cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, which experienced its all time high in 2025 at a price of $126,210. Established by President Trump via executive order in March 2025, the USA now has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) to hold Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, a major step forward in diversifying the country’s assets away from fiat. What also interests me here is our policies are starting to bend towards cryptocurrencies as well, on behalf of the establishment of the Crypto Task Force, as part of the SEC, who are focused on establishing clear regulatory lines, providing registration pathways, and taking enforcement actions against fraud in the crypto space.

I truly believe that the shift towards hard money represents a secular shift. The younger generations see housing, education, and assets out of reach unless they gamble or speculate, leading to the nihilistic/get the bag mentality I see increasing amongst my peers. Do I think the shift will happen overnight? Not at all, people have been bullish on Bitcoin replacing USD since 2010, and if the world is going to experience some sort of shared panic (heightened military pressure between US/China paired with decreased globalization, etc) the US dollar could rapidly strengthen as everyone flees to its relative safety (the dollar milkshake theory). That could postpone the reckoning for the dollar until later (maybe 5+ years out) when things stabilize and inflation erodes it quietly. So short-term, the dollar could moonshot (especially if other currencies fail first, e.g. a euro or yen crisis could make USD look good in comparison). But I think these will be short-term swings on a secular trajectory of erosion in fiat credibility.

In summary, these are trends I’m noticing today:

Short-form + payouts = attention is viewed as currency

Polarization = conflict is fuel for more attention

Rise of Nihilism = scarcity of sound fundamentals

Cognitive decay = scarcity of competence and decisiveness

US decline = volatility + premium of real things

Bad money = new rails to bad risky, alternative places to put money

Always-on social visibility = performativity is replacing harsh judgment

In each domain, scarcity at the extremes becomes the driver of value; ownership of these scarce products/systems/etc is important. I think the key to personal/professional monetary gain will reside in becoming somebody who sits above degraded attention (depth), below volatile systems (human-aligned foundations), and outside performative culture (authentic).

This correction will unfortunately be painful for a lot of those with nearsightedness. Value will be destroyed where it was falsely propped up (the “attention economy”) and it will emerge where fundamentals have been undervalued.

Things I’ll avoid:

Attention economy companies with zero defensibility

Narrative-dependent assets

Things I’ll watch closely:

Seriousness. Things people turn to when they need certainty.

Judgement. Tools that help filter information and aid decisions.

Real stuff. The “boring” stuff.

Hard money. Silver, gold, and Bitcoin.

somebody please present the bull case for openai, I genuinely ...

2025-12-19T15:40:26Z

somebody please present the bull case for openai, I genuinely don't see it

Question for Nostr devs: I’m trying to understand whether a ...

2025-12-10T15:44:19Z

Question for Nostr devs:

I’m trying to understand whether a traditional private account model can be built on Nostr using encrypted groups (NIP-EE). I know a lot of people who enjoy using their real name, but not broadcasting everything publicly.

Idea:
When you “follow” someone, the client is really adding you to one of that user’s encrypted follower-circles. But their posts to that circle appear in your feed; the client just makes the group a feed to mimic the pattern we're used to. Users never see “groups”; they just see a normal follow/feed UI.

Is this even possible?

Example:
A follows B. B follows C & D, but only D follows B back.
A should see only what B shares with followers, not everything B sees from C & D.

No idea if this could actually be implemented

It’s truly inevitable

2025-12-07T22:58:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…jyrx
_________________________

It’s truly inevitable

that's the plan!

2025-11-30T16:34:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…akus
_________________________

that's the plan!

Yeah we’d still have Nostr login and for topical relays we’d ...

2025-11-30T15:29:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…ldwv
_________________________

Yeah we’d still have Nostr login and for topical relays we’d actually re-route notes posted to our relay to m servers dedicated to that topic. For example I love Detroit sports, I post about the Pistons on the internet (doesn’t matter where) and it gets routed to a “sports” relay without me needing to know that relay even exists.

We’ll basically route conversations to semantically similar conversations in real time across the entire web

custom recommendation engines that would work over the entire ...

2025-11-30T00:28:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…stj6
_________________________

custom recommendation engines that would work over the entire internet. similar to what parallel web systems is doing with search, but interest-based / user defined embeddings

I think if we combine nostr with mainstream content it will show the world that if every website used a native login, we'd be able to interact across all websites. so doing a ton of crawling/scraping of the entire internet essentially.

additionally reuse use the clustering process to create topical relays that would act similar to subreddits. classify each note + continuously run topic modeling on all notes to route notes to topical relays and clients could build dedicated clients on top

Something I’m exploring rn Unsupervised learning over all notes ...

2025-11-29T16:49:28Z

Something I’m exploring rn

Unsupervised learning over all notes to automatically spin up topical relays (based on the clusters) that clients can use for specific kinds of notes

All new content gets passed through classifiers and routed to topical relays with dedicated names, similar to subreddits, but purely automated with ML

quoting
nevent1q…mzcz
I don’t know now I removed them - whatever the ones jumble served by default.

I didn’t see the point yet, but it’s still the primary explore method on x21.

It’s mostly bitcoin content. Relay names don’t give any hints as to what you’re going to find. On Reddit the subreddit name is actually useful, here we have weird ass long relay names.

We have to blend Nostr with mainstream content across the entire ...

2025-11-29T16:43:23Z

We have to blend Nostr with mainstream content across the entire internet. Have all the features they’re used to (likes, comments, etc) there for them to use, but they’ll realize they can’t use them. This will be the point of education.

quoting
nevent1q…qm77
There are no amount of features and execution that will bring users from efficient centralized platforms.

Users are not shopping for a washing machine in their slop content consumption.

At some point Nostr will have to hack its way into networks and other things.

What’s up Reid

2025-11-29T16:39:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…fvcm
_________________________

What’s up Reid

Working on this

2025-11-29T16:38:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…qm77
_________________________

Working on this

awesome interview

2025-11-25T17:40:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…ej9r
_________________________

awesome interview

i've noticed a lot more nostr-aligned posting on twitter ...

2025-11-24T20:50:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…hlg6
_________________________

i've noticed a lot more nostr-aligned posting on twitter recently, idk if it's something in the air or what

- indy devs vs twitter platform
- crashouts over the payments system
- "truth-seeking" grok glazing elon

interesting times

love it! ironically I think this is the same pattern that gets ...

2025-11-24T20:46:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…ge0t
_________________________

love it!

ironically I think this is the same pattern that gets people addicted to social media; consistent pattern interruptions, scrolling creates a feeling of seeking/hunting novelty, etc.

What is the poverty line? What does it actually mean? And how ...

2025-11-24T03:26:16Z

What is the poverty line? What does it actually mean? And how does the definition distort our view of how bad things truly are for most people?

Seems like nobody, other than Mike Green, actually thought to take a look

A good read:

https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lie

would something like this built on nostr help with attestation? ...

2025-11-20T16:54:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…6dku
_________________________

would something like this built on nostr help with attestation? https://open.codeword.app/

just thinking you could do offline, "human 2fa", for people to verify they are are who they say they are

I’m right there with you Spamming the comments with Nostr lol

2025-11-18T23:07:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…snna
_________________________

I’m right there with you

Spamming the comments with Nostr lol

just fun search/analytics stuff very harmless but used the X logo ...

2025-11-18T22:01:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…pjkf
_________________________

just fun search/analytics stuff

very harmless but used the X logo without an official relationship most likely

happening now on X... this is actually a very similar story of ...

2025-11-18T21:55:57Z

happening now on X...

this is actually a very similar story of how I ended up here on nostr myself

"we're the everything app, the digital town square, but you must abide by our rules or you must gtfo"

this was excellent

2025-11-18T17:12:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…2npk
_________________________

this was excellent

Is my understanding of the AT protocol correct if my conclusion ...

2025-11-17T17:59:25Z

Is my understanding of the AT protocol correct if my conclusion is that it's not actually decentralized at all and it's more centralized than things such as email and text messaging?

I have a bunch of google docs where I ramble, and then I revisit ...

2025-11-17T15:54:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…v9qx
_________________________

I have a bunch of google docs where I ramble, and then I revisit on Saturday/Sunday mornings to see if it's worth continuing and/or polish up my thoughts

Even Elon doesn’t understand that the everything app won’t be ...

2025-11-14T15:02:23Z

Even Elon doesn’t understand that the everything app won’t be an app

“We’re the global town square, but make sure to abide by our ...

2025-11-13T14:28:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…ntee
_________________________

“We’re the global town square, but make sure to abide by our TOS first”

we’re slowly seeing the impact of being the product There’s ...

2025-11-13T01:11:21Z

we’re slowly seeing the impact of being the product

There’s too much slop and the antidote to slop is money coming out of your pocket

Advertisers and social networks are in for a rude awakening

have learned a lot and will be applying the nostr principles into ...

2025-11-13T00:44:51Z

In reply to nevent1q…269v
_________________________

have learned a lot and will be applying the nostr principles into the work I'm doing now

lots to do

very odd journey here, copy/pasting from another reply I had: I ...

2025-11-13T00:42:51Z

In reply to nevent1q…dd7d
_________________________

very odd journey here, copy/pasting from another reply I had:

I was trying to build B2B saas / consumer insights tool because the current stuff is really outdated, that forced me to figure out how to work with twitter/meta/reddit etc and their terrible (nonexistent) developer relations teams and zero API that devs can actually use, that put me down a legal and spiritual journey of "who actually owns this content?", that eventually led me to looking for alternatives around the same time bluesky launched publicly, I then learned about the AT protocol because I was curious about how it worked, I then went looking for other protocols and found nostr, I ended up liking everything about it more than atproto, and now I'm here

there appears to be some lore I'm not familiar with; I saw ...

2025-11-12T18:04:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…a34z
_________________________

there appears to be some lore I'm not familiar with; I saw some arguments on my feed about similar things a few days ago but felt out of the loop lol

appreciate the info

Interesting, I actually did have to do that - was really confused ...

2025-11-12T17:55:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…wpuc
_________________________

Interesting, I actually did have to do that - was really confused when onboarding at the start

how has retention been so far? are the same folks still here? ...

2025-11-12T17:41:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…0vjt
_________________________

how has retention been so far? are the same folks still here? just curious

that's awesome, glad you're here!

2025-11-12T17:29:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…lpy0
_________________________

that's awesome, glad you're here!

you heard of bitchat before nostr? that's cool copy/pasting ...

2025-11-12T16:37:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…n98l
_________________________

you heard of bitchat before nostr? that's cool

copy/pasting from another reply I had for my story:

I was trying to build B2B saas / consumer insights tool because the current stuff is really outdated, that forced me to figure out how to work with twitter/meta/reddit etc and their terrible (nonexistent) developer relations teams and zero API that devs can actually use, that put me down a legal and spiritual journey of "who actually owns this content?", that eventually led me to looking for alternatives around the same time bluesky launched publicly, I then learned about the AT protocol because I was curious about how it worked, I then went looking for other protocols and found nostr, I ended up liking everything about it more than atproto, and now I'm here

how'd you find it?

2025-11-12T16:20:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…n7zq
_________________________

how'd you find it?

Corporate/enterprise data analytics lol I took really weird path ...

2025-11-12T16:14:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…j07p
_________________________

Corporate/enterprise data analytics lol I took really weird path

I was trying to build B2B saas / consumer insights tool because the current stuff is really outdated, that forced me to figure out how to work with twitter/meta/reddit etc and their terrible (nonexistent) developer relations teams and zero API that devs can actually use, that put me down a legal and spiritual journey of "who actually owns this content?", that eventually led me to looking for alternatives around the same time bluesky launched publicly, I then learned about the AT protocol because I was curious about how it worked, I then went looking for other protocols and found nostr, I ended up liking everything about it more than atproto, and now I'm here

I feel like I'm one of the few people that found nostr in a ...

2025-11-12T15:43:18Z

I feel like I'm one of the few people that found nostr in a way that DOES NOT involve bitcoin.. anyone else?

creatives used to make personal blogs/portfolios but instagram ...

2025-11-11T17:50:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…vyqc
_________________________

creatives used to make personal blogs/portfolios but instagram has essentially replaced that (bc better distribution) - i think if more creatives realized they could go back to blogs/portfolios with built in distribution (nostr) they'd love to and would

just need to get in front of them and relay the benefit. Like most people, nobody cares about the tech/protocol, just what the benefits are

50-yr mortgages completely ignore the problem; embarrassing ...

2025-11-11T17:47:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…9g2l
_________________________

50-yr mortgages completely ignore the problem; embarrassing proposal but not surprised

full paper: ...

2025-11-11T16:31:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…ujhc
_________________________

full paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1537338

What does this remind you of? "The British Railway Mania of ...

2025-11-11T16:30:37Z

What does this remind you of?

"The British Railway Mania of the 1840s was by many measures the greatest technology mania in history, and its collapse was one of the greatest financial crashes. It has attracted surprisingly little scholarly interest. In particular, it has not been noted that it provides a convincing demonstration of market inefficiency. There were trustworthy quantitative measures to show investors (who included Charles Darwin, John Stuart Mill, and the Bront¨e sisters) that there would not be enough demand for railway transport to provide the expected revenues and profits. But the power of the revolutionary new technology, assisted by artful manipulation of public perception by interested parties, induced a collective hallucination that made investors ignore such considerations. They persisted in ignoring them for several years, until the lines were placed in service and the inevitable disaster struck.

In contrast to many other bubbles, the British Railway Mania had many powerful, vocal, and insightful critics. But the most influential of them suffered from another delusion, which misled them about the threat the Mania posed. As a result, their warnings were not persuasive, and were likely even counterproductive, as they may have stimulated increased investments.

The delusions that led to the financial disaster of the Railway Mania arose from experience with the railway mania of the mid-1830s. Seldom even mentioned in the literature, it was about half the size of the big Railway Mania of the 1840s (and thus still far larger than the Internet bubble). The initial financially exuberant phase of it did collapse. But it appears to have been unique among large manias in that a few years later it was seen as having collapsed prematurely, as projects started during its exuberant phase became successful. That mania demonstrates the difficulty in identifying bubbles that are truly irrational. Both railway manias provide a variety of other lessons about the interaction of technology and financial markets."

the dot com bubble also had people saying it was a bubble and it ...

2025-11-11T16:26:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…zr55
_________________________

the dot com bubble also had people saying it was a bubble and it was in fact a bubble

I think this bubble, like the dot com bubble, just means an overinvestment in something that is truly going to be life changing. Bubbles like this pop when enough time has passed for investors to start analyzing cash flows and they realize they won't be able to get the returns they were hoping for / won't be able to get the returns fast enough and start diverting away + selling

In the near future, the devices we use will operate on 100% ...

2025-11-11T13:52:21Z

In the near future, the devices we use will operate on 100% personalized software. When AI can spontaneously create any application you can think of, there will be no need for app stores or 3rd party marketplaces.

When this happens, these edge devices will need shared data layers and oracles to ground and power their activities in real-time.

What does this mean for social networks?

When users are able to, and get used to customizing their experiences on these future devices across various aspects of their lives, which social network will they want to transport data across devices? When I “post” on this future device, which platform will accept and transmit this post for you to view on your device?

None of them. Not Meta, not X, not TikTok, not Reddit, etc. None of them. These platforms can only exist in a world where “platform-lock in” moats trump the importance of data transmission. When you remove static, shared interfaces, there is no need for them to exist.

There will be no social network platform in the future at all.

Instead, what will happen is that our devices will use open protocols. Content, messaging, and information will be transported over a decentralized network with E2EE. Permissionless systems that edge devices can use without any gatekeepers or walled gardens getting in the way.

We’ll have access to all the things we’re used to: “accounts”, scrollable feeds, serendipitous connections, topic-based threads, likes, etc. The interface will just be personalized to our needs with AI, removing the necessity for the platforms themselves. All we need is a shared, open data/comms layer – that’s what I think Nostr will evolve into.

Additionally, we’ll have access to a suite of cheap products/services that enhance our experience on the edge device (better & custom recommendation systems, creative & posting tools, etc.), similar to what is provided by the platforms themselves, but this time built by developers building on top of these protocols.

First snow in Chicago ❄️ ...

2025-11-10T15:33:08Z

First snow in Chicago ❄️

nailed it

2025-10-30T23:34:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…sdkt
_________________________

nailed it

probably some truth to this

2025-10-29T00:02:37Z

In reply to nevent1q…8wj6
_________________________

probably some truth to this

wild how simple it truly is

2025-10-23T22:44:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…plfu
_________________________

wild how simple it truly is

the gm stuff is strange I get why it can be "seen" as ...

2025-10-22T14:44:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…kdtz
_________________________

the gm stuff is strange

I get why it can be "seen" as needed (keeping something alive, hence its proliferation in crypto projects) but in the case of nostr, I don't think it's needed (nostr isn't going anywhere), and it just dilutes the experience overall

makes it harder to onboard "normal" people that aren't crypto-native but resonate with what nostr is

Nostr event nevent1qqs2qdkdhlv7leq7uxx94j4v86aj6errgd8cc56skpgf87s4qku7zvszyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpuk5smvm

2025-10-20T17:20:59Z

how to find more #nostr folks in #chicago ?

Doing all that I can to be the Nostr on ramp for normies. And so ...

2025-10-19T22:06:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…6xfw
_________________________

Doing all that I can to be the Nostr on ramp for normies. And so far, in my opinion, it’s not talking about Nostr but what it enables

“Time spent on social media peaked in 2022” has been all over ...

2025-10-15T13:49:04Z

“Time spent on social media peaked in 2022” has been all over my feed

When you scroll, what are you looking for? Seriously, stop and think. You saw this post, why were you scrolling to begin with?

Most of us don’t even know what we’re looking for... just filling empty space with hopes of seeing something novel enough to hit “like”.

Then we forget about what we saw within 30 seconds. We’re so addicted that any hint of stillness/boredom prompts a physical reaction to grab our phone; this appears in the survey data.

There was a:
- 40% DECREASE in respondents reporting they use social media to keep up with friends
- 16% INCREASE in respondents reporting they use social media to fill spare time

This makes sense: when only a small minority of people post, how are social media platforms supposed to keep you on? They needed to create addictive, attention-hacking algorithms to keep as many eyes on their platforms as possible (eyes = advertising $)

This subtle shift - especially for younger generations - signals intentionality (as opposed to just burnout/anxiety). We’re slowing down and literally PAYING for spaces (digital and irl) that make us feel grounded, informed, and connected.

While social networks like Facebook and X are grasping at anything to gamify attention, the companies building for the future are creating infrastructure that enables sovereignty, curation, curiosity, and depth.

When platforms optimize a proxy (time-in-feed), the proxy replaces the goal (utility/welfare)

Social advertisement yield on “enshittified” feeds will tank as this new world unfolds

think of all the things you've scrolled past in the last 7 ...

2025-10-13T17:43:56Z

think of all the things you've scrolled past in the last 7 days, how many of them do you remember?

better yet, think of all the things you've scrolled past in the last 30 seconds, how many of them do you remember?

Here we go ...

2025-10-05T23:39:17Z

Here we go

Every technology enhances a human function until it overextends ...

2025-10-05T04:10:20Z

Every technology enhances a human function until it overextends that function

Social media has hit this point

Thanks

2025-10-03T14:37:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…krz5
_________________________

Thanks

“what’s America like?” ...

2025-10-03T02:50:34Z

“what’s America like?”

Nostr event nevent1qqsdnpstphz82yfnwxtepru085g95482m6mfeu6h2uesatetlk20cmczyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpuamfsr9

2025-10-01T16:22:50Z

test

Can you link the article?

2025-10-01T14:22:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…u0s8
_________________________

Can you link the article?

Nostr event nevent1qqsv5h4vq6xug8pu5xfvegh34t3qrl9zpxny5sgwgfvul5kgh0ajnpqzyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpu2th70v

2025-09-30T20:46:16Z

was Infinite Jest the Plan B to a super intelligence Plan A?

I am a nobody who has never built anything of value I’m in no ...

2025-09-25T02:14:44Z

I am a nobody who has never built anything of value

I’m in no position to hate on somebody else’s project, or judge somebody for what they’re working on

And if/when that changes, I will still be in no position to hate on somebody else’s project, or judge somebody for what they’re working on

We’re all just trying to create something cool - if you don’t like what it is, talk to them, maybe you’ll learn something new or change your perspective

Godspeed, Nostr friends

nstart is awesome, appreciate you

2025-09-24T15:44:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…76jm
_________________________

nstart is awesome, appreciate you

messing around and building a nostr relay radio: "tune ...

2025-09-22T23:08:03Z

messing around and building a nostr relay radio: "tune in" to different relays to see what's being broadcasted across nostr.

tbh could work as a fun way to browse livestreams and stuff

Shut up nerd

2025-09-22T19:18:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…9f8h
_________________________

Shut up nerd

test

2025-09-22T19:02:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…08pd
_________________________

test

Nostr event nevent1qqsgnjdejw2mzesr2ldwmm7z63dghl2h0qnf2pev6c9m0hjqyy924pqzyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpusjp8hn

2025-09-22T12:57:17Z

test

US Gov. is appointing a board member to TikTok. Trump floats ...

2025-09-19T13:36:21Z

US Gov. is appointing a board member to TikTok. Trump floats pulling broadcasting licenses. Senators don't think "Free Speech" is a right anymore.

Countries around the world are inching closer to state-owned and state-controlled media. We recently saw the impact of this in Nepal and Indonesia; it's not good.

When a large chunk of internet traffic is funneled into a handful of apps, the media we consume is dictated by opaque algorithms created by a few companies. If those companies are influenced by governments, our permission to participate in online spaces is jeopardized.

p(protocol-shift) = 0.35

I could be wrong, but I think he's getting at most users ...

2025-09-19T00:12:39Z

In reply to nevent1q…76q7
_________________________

I could be wrong, but I think he's getting at most users won’t bother switching clients just to see one person’s posts and they’ll most likely stick with the mainstream app (in the current case of at proto, Bluesky) - and in this case they won't be able to see your posts from another app because fetching data from your pds is prohibited by the main app overall, no matter where it comes from. Your friends would need to use the client that pulls from your pds to see them

not a knock on at proto but the concept of bluesky being a dominant app on at proto

come to the midwest - things are still good here

2025-09-18T23:44:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…ndn9
_________________________

come to the midwest - things are still good here

"how do people feel about the US economy?" WIP - needs ...

2025-09-18T21:41:21Z

"how do people feel about the US economy?"

WIP - needs more data

but yeah this is dope... ask any question -> quantify the world's thoughts

shipping soon

stop naming everything after nostr, stop using nostr in the ...

2025-09-15T20:38:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…alw8
_________________________

stop naming everything after nostr, stop using nostr in the marketing, etc.

it confuses people and lacks aesthetics

just build things that natively use nostr, focus the messaging on things the avg person cares about, and nostr will do just fine

people on tiktok actually love the concept of nostr: ...

2025-09-15T20:34:43Z

people on tiktok actually love the concept of nostr: https://www.tiktok.com/@kyle.siftree

the problem with nostr is the marketing: it's typically too focused on the tech for the avg person to care (because they don't understand it) and typically too focused is on things the avg person doesn't usually think about (censorship, btc, permissionless, etc.)

stop selling the tech; start selling the benefit / the feeling

seriously think: why do people care about anything? what gets somebody to stop on a video and not scroll past? what gets somebody to keep watching a video once they've started?

we need to meet people where they are (not on nostr) and relate to them on an emotional / aesthetic level

quoting
nevent1q…7rcq
If Nostr is truly easier and more flexible, why don’t people use it or talk about it? I’ve listened to every one of your podcasts and loved every episode, but it’s frustrating to hear nearly every guest praise ActivityPub or AT Protocol. When you bring up Nostr, perfectly, in context, it gets no real discussion. To me, that signals they either don’t care about it or don’t really believe in its potential.

I agree we could improve in this area. I thought we were moving forward after the discussions at Nostriga, where clients started experimenting with managing keys and bunkers for users who wanted that option. It worked like the familiar email/password login flow, but since then, those clients have either shut down or moved on, and no further progress has been made.

Someone has to lead the way. Right now, most of the content is “yay Bitcoin” or “yay Nostr” because those are the core communities. We branch out into topics like art, music, cats, homesteading, carnivore, and health—but it often circles back to Bitcoin in some form. What we really need are genuine content creators producing original content beyond Bitcoin adjacent topics.

I don’t think it’s entirely true that all content is Bitcoin related. While much of it is, I’ve seen people share music, artwork, surfing videos, and more that resonate with our smaller user base. So there is variety, it’s just not the dominant flow yet. Bitcoin remains king and will remain king until someone else consistent posts content that resonates well within the community or brings their own community here.

Algorithms themselves aren’t the problem, it’s closed, forced algorithms that are. I think we agree here. What we need is better discovery through feed marketplaces and DVMs. Primal is currently the best at this, hands down. Still, DVMs aren’t perfect. They can be slow, offline, or unreachable at times. I also like Damus’ local first approach as a viable alternative.

working on incorporating nostr auth soon, but this has been ...

2025-09-15T20:20:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…ha92
_________________________

working on incorporating nostr auth soon, but this has been introducing "normal" people to nostr pretty well: https://app.siftree.com/

also working on "custom" algorithms soon too that people can publish/swap/share how they curate discovery

will be available via api as well

Everything here is true, I've been talking about "owning ...

2025-09-15T14:15:21Z

Everything here is true, I've been talking about "owning your content" and "using websites" on TikTok and it's been doing pretty well.

People are really interested in the BENEFITS of nostr, and I find that ONLY referencing the benefits (not the tech/protocol) works best. When they ask, "how does this work?" then I go into nostr

The btc/crypto stuff is definitely a barrier, but everyone so far has been dm'ing me about creating their own relays and their own spaces for their communities; it's been awesome.

I very much am selling nostr (not hiding that) - just indirectly.

quoting
nevent1q…3v0n
I've had a LOT of conversations with people about Nostr, really people who are aware of Nostr but don't use it.

There are a few things that come up.

* General admiration for Nostr and how it does tons of interesting things in terms of tech. It's way more flexible than ATprotocol or ActivityPub.

* Frustration with the way user accounts / logins / keys work. It's very confusing if you're not somebody who already understands crypto. Mostly it's confusing because of how we talk about it. If we tell people, here's your magic user text, paste this in places and you'll be magically logged in, they love it. If we try and explain custody and wallets and keys and browser extensions and all the ways you can login with Nostr, their eyes glaze over.

* Not feeling like it's a place for them. Everybody is talking about Bitcoin and Nostr. Most folks don't care very much about the underlying tools or how payments work. They want to talk about their interests, surfing, food, travel, their friends. or ten million other things. They see Nostr as a bitcoin place. Most people have either no opinion or a negative opinion of bitcoin because somebody tried to evangelize it too hard.

* Zaps, folks love zaps. I've heard from board members and the executives of Bluesky that they want zaps. Folks don't like bitcoin and bitcoin content but they do want the functionality. The problem is when creators come to Nostr, they only get zaps for content that is about nostr or bitcoin. There's no good way to build and sustain themselves with other content.

* Algorithms - we all have a love hate relationship with algorithms. We say we don't want them, but we choose to use systems with algorithms. We have them in nostr with DVM's and it works. But it's not well integrated in to the apps and most feed services via DVM's are way too slow. The algorithm helps people be seen, grow an audience, find their people, keep being engaged. We built the proof of concept but didn't make it in to a good product.

These things that keep people from Nostr are fixable. What i'm going at with my podcast is to build a larger movement, Nostr is a solution, but people on Nostr aren't my intended audience. ;-D

if you want to play the algo game... - long-from video essays - ...

2025-09-15T14:05:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…t6rp
_________________________

if you want to play the algo game...

- long-from video essays
- clipping (OpusClip or use Whop if you really wanna head down that path)
- post short-form clips across reels, tiktok, and shorts
- drive audience to long-form content

warning: it feels gross and you may hate yourself

but sadly, it works

Had this thought today - it makes me avoid the issues - which ...

2025-09-14T05:08:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…t42w
_________________________

Had this thought today - it makes me avoid the issues - which arguably worse… idk

Thanks!

2025-09-14T05:07:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…kjcv
_________________________

Thanks!

The internet yearns for Nostr ...

2025-09-12T19:49:19Z

The internet yearns for Nostr

Nostr notes by kyle

I’m bullish on umbrel becoming the ultimate AI assistant some ...

Nostr event nevent1qqszz8nukpcup8m7wa044cu37u7x6w0fekw38ktw7rze8lvgy70pz6szyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpulggg3q

Gen Z male return to religion taken from a Kierkegaardian ...

More of a time-to-value thing I think; how much time do I need to ...

1: awareness 2: value prop and messaging is terrible, bad ...

Yep

Yep, there’s so many more appealing parts than censorship to ...

No way! Thats great

Every 15 years, the tech industry "rediscovers" a thesis ...

This can feel like such a niche place, so I’m always interested ...

Hello Nostr, if you have not read anything by Neil Postman, I ...

What’d you work on at Apple? Just curious

back after a social break - wtf happened to nostr? is this all ...

A new alternative to TikTok that’s algo free, already has 1m+ ...

I was working on something I thought would help but unfortunately ...

similar to my reply on another post; clustering + LLMs could ...

unfortunately got away from it - but wanted to make something on ...

I'm less interested in that, more interested in the claim ...

Hey Vitor, would love your take on UpScrolled? They’re taking ...

Nostr devs I need your input on UpScrolled “UpScrolled is now ...

That’s unfortunate

The community or somebody in particular ?

Why does Vitalik refuse to acknowledge what already exists? I’m ...

gemini 3 deep research is ridiculously good ...

Thoughts on specifically edge AI hardware? Was going to do a deep ...

where I'll be placing my bets in 2026 #naddr1qv…4lkx

somebody please present the bull case for openai, I genuinely ...

Question for Nostr devs: I’m trying to understand whether a ...

It’s truly inevitable

that's the plan!

Yeah we’d still have Nostr login and for topical relays we’d ...

custom recommendation engines that would work over the entire ...

Something I’m exploring rn Unsupervised learning over all notes ...

We have to blend Nostr with mainstream content across the entire ...

What’s up Reid

Working on this

awesome interview

i've noticed a lot more nostr-aligned posting on twitter ...

love it! ironically I think this is the same pattern that gets ...

What is the poverty line? What does it actually mean? And how ...

would something like this built on nostr help with attestation? ...

I’m right there with you Spamming the comments with Nostr lol

just fun search/analytics stuff very harmless but used the X logo ...

happening now on X... this is actually a very similar story of ...

this was excellent

Is my understanding of the AT protocol correct if my conclusion ...

I have a bunch of google docs where I ramble, and then I revisit ...

Even Elon doesn’t understand that the everything app won’t be ...

“We’re the global town square, but make sure to abide by our ...

we’re slowly seeing the impact of being the product There’s ...

have learned a lot and will be applying the nostr principles into ...

very odd journey here, copy/pasting from another reply I had: I ...

there appears to be some lore I'm not familiar with; I saw ...

Interesting, I actually did have to do that - was really confused ...

how has retention been so far? are the same folks still here? ...

that's awesome, glad you're here!

you heard of bitchat before nostr? that's cool copy/pasting ...

how'd you find it?

Corporate/enterprise data analytics lol I took really weird path ...

I feel like I'm one of the few people that found nostr in a ...

creatives used to make personal blogs/portfolios but instagram ...

50-yr mortgages completely ignore the problem; embarrassing ...

full paper: ...

What does this remind you of? "The British Railway Mania of ...

the dot com bubble also had people saying it was a bubble and it ...

In the near future, the devices we use will operate on 100% ...

First snow in Chicago ❄️ ...

nailed it

probably some truth to this

wild how simple it truly is

the gm stuff is strange I get why it can be "seen" as ...

Nostr event nevent1qqs2qdkdhlv7leq7uxx94j4v86aj6errgd8cc56skpgf87s4qku7zvszyqumtvz9d3uqsq3aq0ejz459m0a8yhd49l84e7yuvym2zra0yqhpuk5smvm

Doing all that I can to be the Nostr on ramp for normies. And so ...

“Time spent on social media peaked in 2022” has been all over ...

think of all the things you've scrolled past in the last 7 ...

Here we go ...

Every technology enhances a human function until it overextends ...

Thanks

“what’s America like?” ...