PlanB

I don't know. I just created the JSON file, then created the ".well-known" directory in the root directory of my webhost (maybe that should be the WWW directory?). I can't read it either...

2024-02-08 13:25:25 UTC

Adding 2% bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio vastly improves performance. But most investors are too focused on Sharpe-ratio (based on st.deviation). They see that Sharpe declines a bit. Calmar-ratio (based on drawdown) is a better metric and it improves a lot! Using Calmar: ditching stocks and bonds entirely and invest 4% in BTC while holding 96% in cash, yields superior investment performance. It will take years for large traditional investors to change their risk perspective from st.deviation to drawdown and their risk/return perspective from Sharpe to Calmar. Perspective matters. https://m.primal.net/HbSt.png

2024-02-08 11:16:54 UTC

- reply

hmm
and the html is correct like this right?:
{
"names": {
"PlanB": "a3b0ce5d70d0db22885706b2b1f144c6864a7e4828acff3f8f01ca6b3f54ad15"
}
}

2024-02-08 10:39:23 UTC

After orange comes ...
https://m.primal.net/HbRN.png

2024-02-08 10:11:44 UTC

Realized prices are all increasing, and bitcoin is above them all = bullish. Also, 5M realized price (currently $40k) acts like a floor for the dips in bull markets (red arrows). So .. never below $40k again?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFzgdsTXwAAKwI1.jpg
More info here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alEA_nqGMfI&t=407s

2024-01-05 12:24:40 UTC

Thinking of udating and reviewing these 8 charts monthly on youtube, as a short market overview.
https://youtu.be/3We9I_Cs4Cs?si=5lP6FVvT91vEuJhp

2024-01-04 08:44:31 UTC

Hackers tried to gain access to my twitter account today.

2023-12-09 18:34:42 UTC

New YouTube video: planB monthly market update
https://youtu.be/axMgJxZH-5s?si=Y-IJeFWsVyeZ2Hrh

2023-08-24 07:40:36 UTC

Humans will not change (greed&fear) -> cycles will not change:
https://youtu.be/1kogTNTeOkQ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4NC0TEX0AAnqeG.jpg

2023-07-29 15:10:27 UTC

New PlanB video! "Price is what you pay, value is what you get". $100k - $1m bitcoin?
https://youtu.be/iuf69tureKc

2023-07-15 18:40:09 UTC

Bitcoin $40,000-%50,000 at April 2024 halving? New planB video:
https://youtu.be/vmIlDbTgFYs

2023-06-28 22:20:07 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzpOj4ZXwAghzsP.jpg
Let's take $ out of the equation:
BTC = 16 ounces of gold🚀

2023-06-24 17:49:23 UTC

NEW video on YouTube!
https://youtu.be/GJXl_bCQMKc

2023-06-07 20:00:50 UTC

Periodic reminder
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyCDEwDWAAkU5zS.jpg

2023-06-03 12:13:47 UTC

- reply

Fiat price certainly matters because fiat is (still) the denominator. Fiat price is the best gauge of adoption imo.

2023-06-03 12:11:36 UTC

- reply

Or new bitcoiners who are testing if profits are real and how the selling process works.

2023-06-03 11:20:27 UTC

Bitcoin Realized Return is positive (green) for the 5th month in a row. Average cost price of May sellers was $24.6k
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxpCPLkWwAEsiWs.png

2023-05-30 18:50:55 UTC

Some think S2F model is invalidated/broken because EMH, laser eyes, demand, autocorrelation, 100k, cointegration
Others are watching S2F trading rule and waiting for 2024 halving to bring profits once again (like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings did before)
Time will tell who is right
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxXeaxCXoAcIKET.png

2023-05-11 21:58:21 UTC

- reply

Thank you @npub1tsg…htk4 but can you make the improved code for me?

2023-05-11 21:55:37 UTC

@npub1tsg…htk4 can you please make this Python code faster (data file d.txt is ~350GB and the code processes ~2 billion dictionary inserts and ~2 billion pops)?
d={}
with open('d.txt','r') as f:
for l in f:
v=l.split(" ")
b,i,o=int(v[0]),int(v[1]),int(v[2])
for x in range(4+i,4+i+o):
d[str(v[x+o])]=(b,float(v[x]))
for x in range(4,4+i):
d.pop(str(v[x]), None)
print(d)

2023-05-11 21:39:24 UTC

@npub1tsg…htk4 can you please list the last 10 presidents of the USA?

2023-05-11 21:36:38 UTC

@dave can you please list the last 10 presidents of the USA?

2023-05-11 21:32:41 UTC

@npub1tsg…htk4 what do you think the price of bitcoin will be at the 2024 halving?

2023-04-26 15:43:35 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fuo7sl9X0AMcm1i.jpg
Let's take USD out of the equation.
Bitcoin (BTC) priced in ounces of gold (XAU).
Will 2023 be another outlier or revert to model?🔥

2023-04-24 18:56:07 UTC

S2F 55k 100k and 288k models explained in this video:
https://youtu.be/DMe8_hZP98o

2023-04-24 18:43:00 UTC

- reply

~80% below the top?

2023-04-24 18:41:57 UTC

- reply

Yes some people mention liquidity but I have not studied it myself yet. Would be great if some could share a chart on this.

2023-04-24 18:40:13 UTC

- reply

I don't think s2f was invalidated at all. I think we will see a red hot bull market after 2024 halving, again, just like 2012, 2016 and 2020, as per s2f model.

2023-04-24 09:04:54 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuN5rEVWAAAKDc1.jpg
Saying S2F model is "wrong/invalid/broken", means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings.
Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the halving will probably be at S2F model value $60k (dark blue) and BTC will pump after the halving (red), just like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings.

2023-04-24 09:00:52 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuP9ZyZXoAA-u1Z.jpg
Metcalfe's Law says: value of a network = number of users squared (N^2)
S2F Model says: value of an asset = scarcity cubed (S2F^3)
So if S2F 2x then value 8x (2x2x2)
Oh, and April 2024 halving will 2x #Bitcoin    S2F
Probably nothing🔥

2023-04-19 07:56:29 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft7l7qcWYAAJBEw.jpg
#Bitcoin    April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60).
1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)?
2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)?
3) will S2F trading rule (see chart) still work?

2023-04-19 07:54:31 UTC

#Bitcoin   
Jan 27, 2021: $29K
Feb 21, 2021: $58K (~2x in 25 days)
---
Jul 20, 2021: $29K
Sep 6, 2021: $52K (~2x in 47 days)

2023-04-12 13:17:15 UTC

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1584883797061152768?t=a7lGlLdfnDTI2iXcLKkEIA&s=19
✅️ $21k
✅️ $24k
✅️ $30k
*25 Oct 2022

2023-04-10 15:10:11 UTC

- reply

S2f model als has 1 input variable: s2f-ratio

2023-04-07 11:16:06 UTC

https://youtu.be/DMe8_hZP98o
New PlanB video on YouTube 🔥

2023-04-06 08:22:05 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs82YRUX0AEpH59.png
NEW chart: #Bitcoin market stages
🔵 stage 1: early bear
🟢 stage 2: late bear
🟡 stage 3: early bull <- we are here
🔴 stage 4: late bull
This is my favorite chart after S2F, based on 1 on-chain variable. Not prediction, but detection. If you like this stuff, I will update.

2023-04-02 15:00:04 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsnPeqPWYAMES7d.jpg
#Bitcoin March closing price $28,476

2023-03-30 08:59:40 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsa-1uVXwAAx3oJ.png
73% of all (on-chain) #Bitcoin is in profit (green)

2023-03-24 09:54:02 UTC

- reply

Not really meant as prediction, more valuation, like s2f. Metcalfe and s2f models are for roughly understanding why/how adoption and scarcity affect price.

2023-03-23 22:23:43 UTC

- reply

Doesn't really matter for the argument

2023-03-23 22:03:47 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5_keiWYAgaqpx.png
Current bitcoin adoption is ~1%
Adoption from 1% to 10% will be as fast as from 0.1% to 1%, as per the s-curve 1/(1+exp(a)) .. less than 10 years!
And yes, there is a link between adoption% and price (Metcalfe's law). The vertical is coming.

2023-03-23 11:51:44 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5t3nXWIAAv5O9.png
Of course banks & governments hate bitcoin!
Just like the horse industry hated cars
Just like the music industry hated MP3
Just like the telecom industry hated VOIP