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Last Notes

2026-07-26 15:29:53 UTC

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It's great for pubkeys as identity, that is a win to celebrate. But that's pubkeys as idenity. To say it's part of the nostr universe, you have to have a pretty homeopathic definition of what nostr is.
Which of cousre you can have such a definition, many people do.
But if you're being honest you'll admin that buzz would work more or less the same in terms of functionality and cross-app compatibility if you swap out secp256 for some other scheme. That's the real test.

2026-03-12 08:55:14 UTC

An interesting aspect of decentralised protocol design is how to avoid day-one community capture, meaning one relatively well-defined (but admittedly polarising or off-putting) community sets up shop early on, and in doing so kills off future growth.
Much of the focus to date has been on how to design the tech so as not to be exclusionary. But if the day-one community is exclusionary, then it doesn’t matter so much that the tech is not. You’re just trading one exclusionary vector (central ownership) for another (community capture).
The is a very hard challenge.

2026-03-10 08:15:31 UTC

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> The claims are not mutually consistent
Calle himself is not super mutually consistent these days. First Cashu, then Bitchat, then this Claw stuff. Half-expecting bluetooth-powered Ugandan cashu mints that can solve for quantum gravity.

2026-02-23 14:19:13 UTC

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I'd advise against it, it's all about latency, discord voice is 90% for gaming, a world where 75ms latency is okay but 150ms is unacceptable. There's non gaming discussions, but a lot of them are just getting ready for a session, or post-session, you still need the session. Unless you put a big disclaimer do not attempt to use this for abcd, in conditions 1234, etc. I'd stay far away. Their voice chats, like those of Kick or Twitch, have over the years become just so insanely complex and latency optimised at every possible point.

2026-02-23 08:08:06 UTC

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Threads is booming though. The masses don't want decentralised social, the masses want to have fun with the limited spare time that they have. I can't blame the masses for that, people are free to arrange their priorities as they like.

2026-02-19 07:09:11 UTC

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He's talking about people you follow, not those who follow you.

2026-02-13 05:32:03 UTC

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I'm guessing nobody rugged anyone here.
99% of times on Nostr when you hear about how so and so rugged me (ICANN, Cloudflare, Namecheap...) what actually happened is just some clerical thing, forgot to renew the domain, credit card expired, didn't get the settings right, etc.

2026-02-10 17:12:33 UTC

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"bend the knee to political whims"
is this what we're calling following the law now?

2026-02-08 06:37:31 UTC

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Since 2009, lol.
I'm up over 180cm since birth! During that time my grandparents didn't grow at all.

2026-02-05 20:01:42 UTC

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The cause *is* communal.

2026-02-02 05:58:08 UTC

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@nprofile…zjkj He's right, I checked, this is not a Wendy's.

2026-01-31 17:21:54 UTC

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It's churn. The problem with getting more than 1% of bitcoiners using nostr is that a huge chunk of these potential users have already churned through nostr. The nostr churn rate is insanely high, for non-bitcoiners, but for bitcoiners too. A big chunk of the bitcoin community on X has given it a kick of the tires. Zooming out, hundreds of thousands of bitcoiners may have churned through already. So now you have to get them all back a second time, or a third time, it's almost impossible, usually you only get one shot with this, they don't come back for a second kick of the tires.

2026-01-29 04:30:01 UTC

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Get Alex some users, that's your job. At least 500. By Monday.

2026-01-29 02:47:00 UTC

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You don't have users, man. None of this AI has solved the one problem you need solving more than any other problem: users.

2026-01-26 09:56:35 UTC

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Nostr 1.0 is not the way. Close to every sys-admin at every major company right now has an order from above to get this "quantum migration stuff" done based on NIST depreciation timelines, and you're talking about evangelising Nostr, a protocol that has zero backwards compatibility if made quantum-secure? A pure burn and start again play?
I keep saying, there needs to be a 2.0, Nostr 1.0 is a good start but we need to let go.

2026-01-25 12:51:04 UTC

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Yeah and polar bears are irrelevant to seals.

2026-01-24 13:35:00 UTC

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The funny thing is those who will try and have their cake and eat it too.
"It'll never happen, but we should prepare anyway, even though of course it'll never happen, but what's the harm, and anyway it's just to satisfy the worrywarts, you know, but actually we don't care about the worrywarts, because they're wrong and we want them to know they're wrong, but let's appease them anyway, even though though deserve that, but anyway it'll never happen, and we need to send a strong signal of confidence that it will never happen, but still, just in case, let's prepare for it to happen!"
Most bitcoiners are going to end up making fools of themselves in this way.

2026-01-23 21:35:59 UTC

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Sure, but if it ends up on Primal's relay then Meta can sue Primal and will easily win. Especially if a Primal employee is behind it. No fair use defence there. Or just tell Apple and Apple will remove Primal for not having the appropriate systemic moderation tools.
This will not happen because all of Nostr is far too small for most on the Meta legal team to have even heard of what Nostr is, let alone Primal.
Still though, not a good idea. People need to start again.

2026-01-23 16:29:20 UTC

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Nah, it's flat out Napster 2.0.
Instagram owns the data, as per their terms. It's up to Meta not the user.
Better to encourage people to just start again.

2026-01-23 09:47:51 UTC

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Dude this is so illegal, good energy but please, yo, let's grow legally. Or mostly legally!

2026-01-23 09:46:21 UTC

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This is cool but so illegal.

2026-01-23 07:06:13 UTC

Raiden was designed to have the same theoretical throughput as the Lightning Network, via the same essential design. It's useful to look at Raiden's fate to understand some of the challenges facing Lightning, what's different, what's not.

2026-01-23 04:32:59 UTC

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loyal users are the new gold. there will be so many apps without loyal users, that even a few loyal users will put an app in the 1%.

2026-01-22 18:29:31 UTC

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Adoption AND retention https://image.nostr.build/b73300094e9782198aefb2d03cb6ce42e136172f36288ae5ffead65afde61723.png

2026-01-22 14:36:41 UTC

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Exactly, that ship has sailed.

2026-01-21 14:23:11 UTC

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fully-public kanban is wild
how did sheetstr attempt privacy? or did it?

2026-01-20 17:43:43 UTC

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just depends when. if you'd exchanged all your sats 10 years ago for ETH, as of today you'd have 15x more money than if you didn't do that. so you'd have won.

2026-01-20 14:32:10 UTC

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translation: no shame in taking their joke money seriously.

2026-01-20 11:09:12 UTC

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Maybe not de jure, but you're definitely a de-facto dev.

2026-01-20 09:54:20 UTC

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>that those things are the unit of the Nostr ecosystem, and that that is why you can use various apps to interface with those units
I don't think this is contrary to what normies think about how platforms work because they don't think about how platforms work. Just like they don't think about how their car engine pistons work. If you tell 100 normies, hey, these little JSON units here, these are how instagram posts work in the background, 99 would go okay sure and believe you. This is not a ahah moment to a normie, this is just someone saying here's how a thing works, and the normie thinking well I guess that's how all such things work. They've never really formed ingrained thoughts at all.
And then you next have to explain that this is in fact NOT how it works for Instagram, and explain what a database is, and yada yada.
Normies are just not on this level. All you'll do is become the nerdy car guy explaining to the wrong crowd why dual overhead cams are better.

2026-01-20 09:17:57 UTC

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Nostr JSON is extremely complicated, in wide angle. Devs often have comically little understanding of how the world looks to non devs, it's become a meme, and you're proving out the meme a little here.
Just to understand what a signature is, that a very big thing to normies. Try explain how public key cryptography works to someone who's never every consider what it is and what it does. And then explain what a hash is after that.
Without that it's a just a meaningless little markup file.
Devs will often give up and say "okay all you need to know is it's a kind of digital signature" and other mush that just makes it worse and not better, since cryptographic signatures are not at all analogous to real-world signatures, and since cryptographic keys are also not at all analogous to real world keys. And anyway keys don't even sign things in the real world, keys open things.

2026-01-20 08:39:59 UTC

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It took 1,400 years to get from where monks began writing in serious numbers to mass literacy.
And it took the past 200 years to get from 10% literacy to mass.
You are not getting any serious chunk of the normie internet population to "have a look at the JSON" on any non-comical timeframe, and most likely never.

2026-01-20 05:30:57 UTC

"have a look at the JSON for a bit"
Suggestions by devs on how normies can improve their nostr experience, leading to less churn overall.
(Normie: "Who's this Jason and what is he posting?")
#nevent1q…yscs

2026-01-19 14:51:32 UTC

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>The dual-function of chat + browser with nostr login support is a vision you can only understand by seeing it for yourself.
Or just by living in Asia.

2026-01-18 08:30:12 UTC

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>Big tech has no moat.
Pretty sure Nvidia has no issues with this option.

2026-01-18 04:56:08 UTC

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Like if a 6s clip goes viral and gets 100k views that's say 2 or 3 TB served, and in a sort period of time. (Proving transcoding of proven video is another issue I'm curious how you'd tackle). My guess is this media.divine.video is going to be pretty heavily subsidised for a while, and that's cool, but it would be good to see transparent costs and projections for the infra behind that.

2026-01-18 02:33:54 UTC

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But what about the cloud costs for the CDN, storage, etc.? The idea is each user covers their own costs?
And relay costs too, but to a much smaller degree.
Or is the idea to bootstrap growth by offering subsidies options to start?

2026-01-17 14:05:28 UTC

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I meant costs for all the media serving and storage, and cloud infra in general.
I agree with you the proving part is a bit wobbly in terms of messaging, but not so much for the fact the app was heavily vibed. More because the max-proof certification relies absolutely on Apple and Google's servers. You could easily call that an advertisement for the benefits of centralisation.
Normally that's fine, centralisation does have benefits, and when apps are honest about it then good.
What irks me is this screw you apple/thank you apple love-hate thing.

2026-01-08 16:41:30 UTC

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There are just so few people here, that's what it boils down to.
If your entire job was reposting content and getting sneaky zaps in this way you'd still not even be earning minimum wage. Not even close.

2026-01-04 05:50:51 UTC

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Man kind1 land is really shrinking. In days gone by a post like this would have had at least a few comments by now.
Now it's like wait an hour or two and maybe get one.

2026-01-03 19:14:36 UTC

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30% in sounds about right.

2026-01-03 17:47:12 UTC

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Don't be silly about it though. Y'all can't pay your suppliers in bitcoin, if you go all in on bitcoin and then the value of bitcoin plummets versus what your suppliers will take then you're in a pickle. Sure it can go up to, but if the business is quarter by quarter, year by year, then this is just playing the slot machine.

2026-01-02 22:43:32 UTC

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Between nostr.band and npub.world/stats you can see where things are (especially when they were both running at the same time). Different methodologies but they both followed the same trendline. This is definitely the lowest in 2 or 3 years.
Also on Primal trending, for the last two months it's not been uncommon for the top trending post of the hour to have just a couple replies, this was not the case back in the summer.
Various nostr new year prediction posts this year got a fraction of the engagement from past years.
But also you can just feel it. Feels like ennui is setting in, tumbleweeds are blowing, certain acknowledgements are being made vis a via the "other stuff" euphemism. Even the fact that nostr.band which you mentioned is abandoned now says something.

2026-01-02 22:27:54 UTC

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>Eventually there's going to be "one ring to rule them all," and my guess is that's Nostr. But in the interim we can use bridges...
You realise that kind1 land is fading away? Numbers are down, nostr is at perhaps it quietest ever in terms of activity. On what are you basing this incredible turnaround?

2025-12-31 22:04:50 UTC

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This assumes everyone is Kanye. The vast majority of people who do delete a post on X, their posts were never screenshotted, often never even read. Perhaps they just felt embarrassed after a few minutes of cooling down, or noticed a grammar error, or wanted to rephrase things. And even for posts that have been up for a while, often it's just them tidying up, and again, nobody will have cared to screenshot those posts before they deleted them.

2025-12-30 08:52:06 UTC

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As far as I can see there is no giant fiat scam. It's one of things where "it is what it is".
Supposedly inflation has gone on a rampage from1950 to 2025, wages not keeping up, etc. Okay but what does that actually mean in terms of everyday life?
In 1950, someone on minimum wage would have had to have worked far more hours to afford a television, a flight across the country, a pair of glasses, a whole chicken, etc., versus someone in 2025.
You can make an opposite list too (more work time now).
There is no scam that I can see. The only measure is "hours worked to afford the things that are important to me". For some people that'll be going up over time, but for many others that'll be going down.

2025-12-29 16:11:46 UTC

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I don't understand this loyalty to just one thing.
If you sold your bitcoin earlier in the year, bought silver, and then the other day sold your silver and bought back bitcoin then now you've got much MORE BITCOIN than if you'd just held.
Same as if you had 100 bitcoin ten years ago, sold them all and bought ETH, then today, ten years later, sold your ETH and bought back bitcoin, you'd have MORE (lots, lots more).
Trading is the way.
Ideologically-driven bear-hugging of any one instrument is just silly.

2025-12-27 14:05:42 UTC

Anyone trying to encourage people who create good content to cross post to nostr under the notion that "it doesn't take much effort to cross post" is just utterly removed from the world of online authorship.

2025-12-27 10:41:06 UTC

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"It's all in your head" describes all money, ever. Including fiat, crypto and gold in this sitting in a vault sense.
The idea that you can have some form of money that is somehow "more rational" ignores what money actually is.

2025-12-22 14:39:19 UTC

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Ray Dalio has been warning about anything you can think of for years. If tomorrow there's an invasion of purple-eyed lizard people from Venus, chances are Ray Dalio warned about that too.

2025-12-20 20:46:31 UTC

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Palantir when? I considered silver and didn't buy, hence the regret. As for stocks, if I'd have considered Palantir and it did as well as sliver during that time (or better) then I'd regret that too. That goes for whatever else you want to pull from the S&P.

2025-12-20 16:56:57 UTC

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you're being a fool and investing your hard-earned money all in one place based on some weird combination of ideology, friendship and magic-show hypnosis.
this isn't 2009. bitcoin's puberty is over. its teenager height now. lots of things will grow faster than bitcoin in 2026. as happened in 2025. (heck even the S&P 500 grew 20% faster in 2025.) keep some of your money in bitcoin but spread the rest around. trade a little. and cash out back to bitcoin when it makes sense.
humans have been trading since the beginning of time for a reason.

2025-12-20 16:18:38 UTC

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>Influencers draw attention by posting things that sound like advice or deep life insights
[proceeds to post things that sound like advice or deep life insights]

2025-12-20 16:02:53 UTC

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Don't pretend like if you could go back in time 10 years with $1,000 you'd buy Bitcoin and not Ethereum (butterfly effect disabled). Of course you'd buy Ethereum, and then you'd jump back forward in time and sell it for Bitcoin.
And if you had a crystal ball and knew 100% for sure that say, whatever, I dunno, titanium, was going to rise in value versus bitcoin over the next 5 years, you'd sell all your bitcoin and buy titanium.
If not then what are you thinking? That it makes you somehow moral to end up with less bitcoin but to have held it all along?

2025-12-20 15:17:08 UTC

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Here's what I used for another oops didn't know person.
It's 10 years ago today.
Me, you and Mickey Mouse each have 100 Bitcoin.
You keep yours.
I sell mine and buy Nvida stock.
Mickey sells his and bus Eth.
This morning I sell my Nvidia and buy Bitcoin. Mickey sells his Eth and buys Bitcoin.
Guess what? We both now have more Bitcoin than you. Amazing. What happened?
If bitcoin is ~*good*~ and I have more than you now, then aren't I ~*gooder*~!
Awaiting whatever other technicality you want to fish out of your pocket.

2025-12-20 15:12:19 UTC

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Oh please. The past 10 years is a perfectly legit time period. You just had no idea that Eth and Nvidia had appreciated more than Bitcoin during it, and now you're digging deep in your pockets to find any sort of technicality to get you out.

2025-12-20 15:10:11 UTC

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you're just a fish on my troll line aren't you, look at you wiggle.
it's always easy to spot the ones that can't help themselves.

2025-12-20 12:27:51 UTC

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all i'm saying is you're not getting my coconut.
what do i care for your bitcoin or your dollars. we're stuck here. it's my coconut.

2025-12-20 12:23:37 UTC

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we're both stranded on the same desert island, never ever getting off.
you have 100k dollars and 1 bitcoin.
i have a coconut.
i think you'll be eyeing my coconut.

2025-12-20 12:21:04 UTC

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it's not a story about a thing.
it's that the thing itself is a story.
you're mixing up a with b.

2025-12-20 12:01:26 UTC

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okay fair enough.
what I'm saying is that a lot of people here on nostr seem to assume that bitcoin is different than other money, transcendent if you will.
behind this is some notion that bitcoin has objective properties that make it so, properties that exist in some non-imaginary sense.
i'm just saying that's silly, that all money has value only become some humans managed to persuade some other humans that it has value. with stories. that's how it works.
what's a dollar but a piece of paper?
what's a bitcoin but a few bytes on a harddrive?
when fewer humans agree that such and such money has value then such and such money goes down.
for bitcoin to go up, it's story has to do better in the story wars than the story of some other money.
that's it really. stories versus stories.

2025-12-20 11:54:46 UTC

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You're just cursing and rambling like a drunk.

2025-12-20 11:43:09 UTC

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Let me lay it out for your Neanderthal IQ.
It's 10 years ago today.
Me, you and Mikey Mouse each have 100 Bitcoin.
You keep yours.
I sell mine and buy Nvida stock.
Mickey sells his and bus Eth.
This morning I sell my Nvidia and buy Bitcoin. Mickey sells his Eth and buys Bitcoin.
Guess what? We both now have more Bitcoin than you. Amazing. What happened?

2025-12-20 11:38:38 UTC

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It's al still stories, quantum is just a plot-twist.
The value of bitcoin is all a story in our heads, and the threat from quantum, that's a threat to the integrity of the story. This is story on story violence. Which is how all money goes up and down.
Think about it. Anyone could come up with anything and propose it as a money. As long as we all agree it has value because x then it has value, and if we all agree that it loses value because y then it loses value. I could come up with a currency that has one coin for every letter in the alphabet, and we all agree it has value because it's derived from the alphabet, it's the holy 26. Then the government mandates a change to the chinese alphabet and it collapses. oops.

2025-12-20 11:24:42 UTC

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Lol "pick a date", no. You said 10, I gave you 10, and now you don't like it because you learned that Nvidia and Eth did better over the past 10 years.
Also, news flash, 10 years is the least random measure you can think of. If it was 7.32 years or something the that'd be cherry picking.
#nevent1q…9cun

2025-12-20 08:15:07 UTC

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News flash, money doesn't exist outside of the human imagination.
If we're stranded on a desert island and we each have 100 bitocin, we may as well each have 0 bitcoin.
We can't eat it, we can't use it for shelter, we can't make a fishing line of out it.
It has no physical properties.
It's nothing.
It's just a story in our heads.

2025-12-19 20:02:07 UTC

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Pumpkins. I thought so.

2025-12-19 18:37:42 UTC

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Literally the only point you've brought to this conversation is that inflation exists. Which of course it does.
What other things would you like to inform us all that exist?
Pumpkins?

2025-12-19 18:25:13 UTC

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yeah I agree with you there, it's a good story, and that's why bitcoin has done quite well in the story wars.
but stories go in and out of fashion, the audience is humans and we have a limited attention span!

2025-12-19 18:24:09 UTC

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You came without a point, and you left without a point.
I'll give you one thing, you're good at symmetry.

2025-12-19 18:17:12 UTC

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Nobody can tell you. This idea that some certain money has objective properties that exist outside of the human imagination and that will guarantee this money's success in x years time, it's all nonsense. No money, fiat or crypto, has objective properties that exist outside of the human imagination. No money has protons, neutrons or electrons. Just imagina-trons. All of 'em.
It's all just one big fight for the collective human imagination, and the only weapons in this fight are stories. (Note *human imagination*, and not animal, because penguins and polar bears could care less about this fight.) Each money is armed with its own story, and the stories are doing battle, and it's never-ending, and new stories will emerge and old stories will fade away, and on and on we go. That's what it's about.

2025-12-19 18:05:12 UTC

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What pray tell is THIS particular discussion about then?

2025-12-19 18:01:29 UTC

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Lots of things!
Bitcoin is more or less a start-from-scratcher on an exact 10-year timescale, so a fair comparison would be other things that are also more or less start from scratch.
Eth pretty sure. As in if you bought $100 worth of Eth exactly 10 years ago today, you'd have done better than if you'd bought $100 worth of Bitcoin.
Also NVIDIA stock too probably, but that's not from scratch (though it's from the gaming GPU time when nobody could have forseen AI)

2025-12-19 17:44:17 UTC

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Don't be dumb. Any money can be compared to any other money and have a value winner emerge vis a vis whatever measure or basket you're using, and whatever period of time. Bitcoin is not some transcendent thing the value of which is somehow absolute (as if there were such a thing as absolute value, donk).

2025-12-19 17:38:50 UTC

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This is the correct answer.
Somewhere in an Aztec pyramid a small stone altar is descending into the floor and something very cool is about to happen.

2025-12-19 17:36:01 UTC

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Well it just depends what the alternative is, doesn't it? Why save in anything? Why save in Bitcoin? If you had 1 bitcoin, and sold it 365 days ago to buy silver, and sold your silver today to buy back bitcoin, you'd have 2.5 bitcoin. If the goal is to accrue value, then you save in whatever does that!
What drives value at the end of the day is STORIES. Things like inflation, liquidity, etc., these are just various plot points that we can use or not use in the stories we tell. But in the end the value of a given money comes down to how persuaded people are by that money's story. Money is simply trade-able persuasion.

2025-12-19 17:22:52 UTC

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Sigh. It makes currency A gain value *versus currency B* even though you can buy less beef with currency A ... because you can buy *even less* beef with currency B.
You select some things to compare, you compare those things. That's what value is. There is no such thing as non-relative value. Duh.
Hard to believe I'm having this discussion.

2025-12-19 17:14:42 UTC

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No, you are just stuck in a bubble. Inflation is one of many factors to take into account when evaluating the value of different monies vis a vis each other, or a vis a vis a basket of goods, or whatever.
It is not the be all and end all. Obviously.

2025-12-19 17:11:34 UTC

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Sure, it has lost value compared to, wait for it, those things. Not rocket science.
But at the same time it could have gained value compared to another currency which can also be used, directly or indirectly, to purchase those things. Yawn.

2025-12-19 16:54:35 UTC

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The dollar loses value every day compared to what? Avocados?

2025-12-19 16:45:48 UTC

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That means I caught a fish.
I don't mind the breaks between fishes, it's the fishing that's fun.

2025-12-19 16:42:31 UTC

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How's Bitcoin doing since 365 days ago?
Anyone can play the start from zero game. Random rock band founded in 2014 grew album sales at a rate 100 times faster than Coldplay during that period!

2025-12-19 16:31:44 UTC

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if the thing that supposedly doesn't suffer from inflation is losing value at a rate faster than the thing that *does* suffer from inflation then clearly value and inflation are not joined at the hip

2025-12-19 16:16:18 UTC

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losing value compared to what?

2025-12-19 15:39:28 UTC

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1dorito=1dorito, what's your point?

2025-12-19 15:25:23 UTC

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Look inside man. 10k daily active users is not a pedestal on which to boast your greatness in the wide world of online social media.
Maybe save all this chest-pounding and boasting for when nostr has a respectable number of daily active users in the wider scheme of things? For when all these great Goliaths that (according to your memes anyway) cower in fear of the mighty upstart nostr have in fact actually heard of it?
Right now you're just making the network look like a bunch of deluded goofballs.

2025-12-06 05:58:07 UTC

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McDonalds food is not cyanide either. Enjoy it now and then, you'll be fine. Ice creams are nice when the machine works.
Basically it's the whole comic-book-isation that I'm against. The world is not a comic book.

2025-12-05 19:17:15 UTC

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His money is in the bank vault now. This is a funny thread.

2025-12-05 19:12:36 UTC

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I'll give you that banks in western movies certainly have a more romantic, personal allure than the banks of today.

2025-12-05 18:59:41 UTC

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Relief walking out of the bank.

2025-12-05 10:28:34 UTC

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Not so wild as what is the question. Murder rates in cali gold rush boomtowns and cattle towns were astronomically high.
LA mid-1800s at some point was over1k per100k at some point. Pretty small place, sort of a supply town, but still.
Mining camps could see 500 per 100k, quieter boom towns 100 per.
London for reference is now about 1.5k per 100k. Even worst parts of worst cities in the US now wouldn't hit average gold rush levels.
As a gold miner, you'd have likely been very relieved to have been allowed to open a bank account

2025-12-05 08:10:14 UTC

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Except wrench attacks exist.
Many people these days so comfortable that the've forgotten how physical violence works.
Go back in time and ask a gold miner during the california gold rush how he feels about the invention of banks. Imagine the fear walking around the wild west with all the cash you got back for your gold in your pockets, and for months or years until you can get back home.
And no, wrench attackers don't give up and say "oh shucks" when you inform them you're on some multi-sig arrangement.

2025-11-30 10:27:23 UTC

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Important to note thought that this is a major pivot, with all that major pivoting entails.
This is a case of "as it turns out toothbrushes are useful to clean bathtub grout". Which can be true, but still, it's important to stay aware that toothbrushes were designed to brush your teeth with.

2025-11-18 13:03:17 UTC

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Hard to say. If it happens before any real movement on the newer NIST keys then the attacker would very quickly be in control of 30% of bitcoin supply and more or less all trading on bitcoin would stop. It would be a knock out punch, hard to see how to recover.
Right now we're at 48 qubits of the type needed (has been demonstrated). We'd need to get to somewhere in the order of 2,000.
Whispers we might in fact already be at 96, who knows, it's possible the most advanced research here is classified military research, not academic or big tech.
Also this is based on Shor's algo, bit it's very possible we'll see more effective versions of Shor's in terms of qubit count or gate count, and an announcement there could bring the qubit number down overnight., to 1,500, to 1,000, we have no idea.
Also there is no proof that SHor' sis the optimal quantum algorithm for integer factorisation. A one could potentially change things by requiring a a much smaller quantum architecture. Again that's an overnight thing, a group of academics publishes a paper and the next morning everything is different. (It's not even clear if qubits are the way to go in the first place, there are non-qubit systems)
Also AI might supercharge error correction to the point where we don't need this intense cooling and noise reduction and are actually quite close with even messy qubits, of which we can already do a lot.
Basically we have no idea, anyone who says it wont' happen before X date is just fortune telling. It's not likely that there's be an attack before bitcoin has any real immunity. But it's absolutely possible there will be, an attack before hardly any wallets have migrated. It's even possible there is an attack before bitcoin core even selects a key type.
The nature of unexpected breakthroughs is that they are unexpected.
So pinning the world's financial hopes on bitcoin is actually pretty risky, especially given that all people seem to want to is argue about OP return and jpegs, and just pretend this "quantum thing" isn't' real. It is very real.

2025-11-18 10:56:11 UTC

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The attacker could work out the private key from the public key of any Bitcoin address whose public key has been revealed on the chain. Think about that. (Again this is nothing to do with SHA256).
Dormant whale wallets, especially from early years, all immediately drained.
Following that (and assuming this all happens before any post-quantum resistance has had the chance to propagate) the % of total Bitcoin supply that would be drained by the attackers would likely be around 30%. (The attack team can drain the exposed wallets before the community can even migrate a small fraction, this is all very well prepared. The theft of this pool is almost guaranteed once a capable quantum computer is revealed.)
You now have some random team, in some lab somewhere in Asia, in control of 30% of the supply of Bitcoin.
Exchanges, wallets, and institutions would likely halt all Bitcoin transactions and withdrawals to assess the damage and prevent further theft, effectively paralysing the network.
Short-range attacks (funds being moved exposing their wallets) means nobody who's wallet is not exposed moves anything either.
The list goes on. GHash.io this absolutely is not.

2025-11-18 09:36:27 UTC

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for secp256k1 it's all about timing. if a shor's attack happens quickly enough, that's also the end of the story.
but don't count out grover's and sha256 either, quadratic speedup is a real thing, it's all about creative attacks and the speed of the quantum machine.

2025-11-18 09:33:16 UTC

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as always, snark but no argument about why quantum isn't a existential threat. because there is no argument.

2025-11-18 09:31:59 UTC

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secp256k1, not SHA-256. a short term shor's attack is just as devastating as a long-term grover's (with a lot of caveats about the grover's)

2025-11-18 08:16:14 UTC

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Yeah, no. One single unexpected quantum computing breakthrough can end all of Bitcoin. Don't think hanging the future of the world's money on a currency that can be ended by a single press release is a good idea.

2025-11-14 04:01:28 UTC

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It wouldn't work. You in theory ditch secp256k and start over with Crystals or similar (hello 2.5kb signatures). But on Nostr it makes no sense to hard fork and just change the key type, since there are other unresolved technical problems, you'd want to kill as many birds with one stone as you can.
It'd basically be an entirely new protocol. This one written off.
The problem is that it has to be done. I mean it would be quite a feat of engineering if within 3 years there was a quantum computer that can crack secp256k via shor's, in the 2k-6k logical qbit range. But the thing is it's entirely possible, given how AI is supercharging error correction and new advances in qbit types and noise reduction. So if being serious about security you have to assume it will happen in 5 years, and you definitely have to assume it will happen in 10.
Signal started their fix a couple years ago and are basically done, so things like White Noise can be reworked to remove nostr (as we know it now) as the transport layer. But for nostr itself there is zero scope for migration, it's the end of the line.