Good article.
Would just argue SpaceX is being valued on the VAST future potential, not present earnings, and future potential is relatively uncapped in this one case. The AI companies are pretty hard to justify given it's almost a commodity at this point. Of course the numbers would be very different if we had a market-based hurdle rate rather than the FED.
I also watched The Great Taking, and while it scared the shit out of me, I think it's not really saying anything we don't already know, namely that IF things break down badly, anything you don't physically (or mentally) hold will be a legal claim and nothing more. Think of the Palisades fires -- you can sue the insurance company for non-payment, but you no longer have a house, and you are reliant on third parties to enforce your contract .
And the only thing ensuring your claims have real value are incentives -- they won't default on your shares or bonds because that would be catastrophic for their own portfolios and those of their friends and families too. Mutually assured destruction is what keeps the system afloat. But once things get so out of whack that there's nothing to lose, the incentives break down, and the great taking occurs.
I think it definitely COULD get to that point, and when it does there probably won't be much warning, but in the meantime you have to live in the world as it is, pay the fiat bills, etc. because that time could be 5, 10 or 20 years away or happen never. Just make sure you have some insurance in the form of a bearer instrument rather than a claim.
Chris Liss
npub1dt…4hgu0
2026-06-21 10:26:28 UTC
in reply to naddr1qp…g8n7
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npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0Published at
2026-06-21 10:26:28 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Good article. \n\nWould just argue SpaceX is being valued on the VAST future potential, not present earnings, and future potential is relatively uncapped in this one case. The AI companies are pretty hard to justify given it's almost a commodity at this point. Of course the numbers would be very different if we had a market-based hurdle rate rather than the FED. \n\nI also watched The Great Taking, and while it scared the shit out of me, I think it's not really saying anything we don't already know, namely that IF things break down badly, anything you don't physically (or mentally) hold will be a legal claim and nothing more. Think of the Palisades fires -- you can sue the insurance company for non-payment, but you no longer have a house, and you are reliant on third parties to enforce your contract .\n\nAnd the only thing ensuring your claims have real value are incentives -- they won't default on your shares or bonds because that would be catastrophic for their own portfolios and those of their friends and families too. Mutually assured destruction is what keeps the system afloat. But once things get so out of whack that there's nothing to lose, the incentives break down, and the great taking occurs. \n\nI think it definitely COULD get to that point, and when it does there probably won't be much warning, but in the meantime you have to live in the world as it is, pay the fiat bills, etc. because that time could be 5, 10 or 20 years away or happen never. Just make sure you have some insurance in the form of a bearer instrument rather than a claim. ",
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