Mitch Askew's retirement estimate fell from 34 BTC to about 1.25 BTC when I applied a 25% annual growth assumption over roughly 15 years. But that target doesn't tell him what happens if bitcoin falls 50% the month after he quits his job.
In our podcast conversation, Mitch planned on spending $100,000 a year. Cut bitcoin's price in half, and that same withdrawal costs twice as much bitcoin. You have fewer sats left for the recovery.
That's sequence-of-returns risk. Bad returns early in retirement hurt more because you're selling assets before they can recover.
Mitch suggested keeping two years of expenses in cash or Treasury bills. That's $200,000 outside the assets he expects to compound. I generally wouldn't do that. I'd rather save beyond the minimum target and keep my spending flexible.
Travel less, delay a big purchase, or earn consulting income. If you own stocks or other liquid investments, selling those first gives bitcoin more time to compound.
Borrowing adds another way to get forced into a sale: falling collateral can trigger a margin call. I'd only borrow against a small portion of my stack and keep enough unpledged to respond.
Your retirement target needs room for a bad opening sequence, so you control when and how much bitcoin you sell.
Read how to build a bitcoin retirement plan that keeps you in control of your withdrawals:
https://www.firebtc.io/p/enough-bitcoin-to-retire-isnt-enough
npub1m6…ue2p9
2026-09-18 13:09:00 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9Published at
2026-09-18 13:09:00 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "c1b2f128514b0bb9d06009d7ff33bdf92adef6be1b0ba10c75683c998f44ad44",
"pubkey": "de885001fac7aab1a21a793b153c28ddc5a794a818fb4fb9f5ed89c33302f7d8",
"created_at": 1789736940,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "Mitch Askew's retirement estimate fell from 34 BTC to about 1.25 BTC when I applied a 25% annual growth assumption over roughly 15 years. But that target doesn't tell him what happens if bitcoin falls 50% the month after he quits his job.\n\nIn our podcast conversation, Mitch planned on spending $100,000 a year. Cut bitcoin's price in half, and that same withdrawal costs twice as much bitcoin. You have fewer sats left for the recovery.\n\nThat's sequence-of-returns risk. Bad returns early in retirement hurt more because you're selling assets before they can recover.\n\nMitch suggested keeping two years of expenses in cash or Treasury bills. That's $200,000 outside the assets he expects to compound. I generally wouldn't do that. I'd rather save beyond the minimum target and keep my spending flexible.\n\nTravel less, delay a big purchase, or earn consulting income. If you own stocks or other liquid investments, selling those first gives bitcoin more time to compound.\n\nBorrowing adds another way to get forced into a sale: falling collateral can trigger a margin call. I'd only borrow against a small portion of my stack and keep enough unpledged to respond.\n\nYour retirement target needs room for a bad opening sequence, so you control when and how much bitcoin you sell.\n\nRead how to build a bitcoin retirement plan that keeps you in control of your withdrawals:\nhttps://www.firebtc.io/p/enough-bitcoin-to-retire-isnt-enough",
"sig": "f6fa73edcd6131b295448eb91bba02b00458fcd8c85191a75beb91ece7e271e325bdcb2b7747edc4fd25a5703689209aaffb08b3e942e6435b54dd82ad3e4bc5"
}