The second one is indeed safer. But I don't think they'll ever get 4032 blocks; I'm not even sure they'll get 4 mandatory signalling blocks
So I think if you want to guarantee that splitting is possible, then - like you said - you need something like this:
1. make a splitting transaction, with a large op_return, and broadcast it at or after the start of mandatory signalling (August 8th/9th), and broadcast it on the "legacy" network
2. If that confirms on both chains, then the "split" has failed, and a BIP110 miner broke the default policy. You haven't lost funds, you just need to start again from the new address.
3. When it confirms on the legacy chain, then you should quickly RBF to spend the funds back to yourself
4. Now you have successfully spilt (unless you're unlucky and reorgs happen!)
.. come to think of it, that's just too messy, I think
SatsAndSports
npub1zt…wxm56
2026-07-29 15:24:01 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…fhnu
Author Public Key
npub1zthq85gksjsjthv8h6rec2qeqs2mu0emrm9xknkhgw7hfl7csrnq6wxm56Published at
2026-07-29 15:24:01 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "The second one is indeed safer. But I don't think they'll ever get 4032 blocks; I'm not even sure they'll get 4 mandatory signalling blocks\n\nSo I think if you want to guarantee that splitting is possible, then - like you said - you need something like this:\n\n1. make a splitting transaction, with a large op_return, and broadcast it at or after the start of mandatory signalling (August 8th/9th), and broadcast it on the \"legacy\" network\n2. If that confirms on both chains, then the \"split\" has failed, and a BIP110 miner broke the default policy. You haven't lost funds, you just need to start again from the new address.\n3. When it confirms on the legacy chain, then you should quickly RBF to spend the funds back to yourself\n4. Now you have successfully spilt (unless you're unlucky and reorgs happen!)\n\n.. come to think of it, that's just too messy, I think\n\n",
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