Tyler Burns on Nostr: I don't think it is that unlikely. I believe there is 50% probability of a collision ...

I don't think it is that unlikely. I believe there is 50% probability of a collision with about 1.2 million keys generated for a 2^40 search space. I'm not sure how many ColdCard have been sold (probably not a million), but I don't think it'd be a stretch to think that there haven't been plenty of keys generated from them.