I was right about:
– Coldcard being a scam (2021)
– Zcash becoming the new revenge chain, while the price was still under $50 (2025)
– Bitcoin Cash becoming a big source of inspiration for BTC developers (2025)
– Privacy becoming the next big narrative (2024, after returning from Nashville and realizing that nobody cares about the imprisoned Samourai devs)
– The multi-coin world towards which we’re heading. 500 million coins across multiple chains is still scarce and better than infinite inflation or a captured 21 million with paper inflation.
I was wrong about:
– the Lightning network being the future of payments and the true altcoin killer
– Staying Bitcoin-only during DeFi summer & the NFT mania
– Bitcoin’s willingness to absorb Ethereum, Zcash & Namecoin use cases (the builders find amazing workarounds, but then the users don’t care because they’re HODLing)
– Drivechains coming to Bitcoin, eventually. Now that a BIP300 hard fork is launching, it seems even less likely that Bitcoin will adopt the tech before the miners start starving
– Bitcoin maximalists being the smartest people in the room. They’re not anymore, it’s been a decade since this was the case.
What else was I right/wrong about?
npub12q…ypdx8
2026-08-07 01:05:59 UTC
Author Public Key
npub12qz56plzehejkyp4waaannmnny4y4c30j8q55a3wlk49haslga2snypdx8Published at
2026-08-07 01:05:59 UTCEvent JSON
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"pubkey": "50054d07e2cdf32b1035777bd9cf73992a4ae22f91c14a762efdaa5bf61f4755",
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"kind": 1,
"tags": [
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"content": "I was right about:\n– Coldcard being a scam (2021)\n– Zcash becoming the new revenge chain, while the price was still under $50 (2025)\n– Bitcoin Cash becoming a big source of inspiration for BTC developers (2025)\n– Privacy becoming the next big narrative (2024, after returning from Nashville and realizing that nobody cares about the imprisoned Samourai devs)\n– The multi-coin world towards which we’re heading. 500 million coins across multiple chains is still scarce and better than infinite inflation or a captured 21 million with paper inflation. \n\nI was wrong about:\n– the Lightning network being the future of payments and the true altcoin killer \n– Staying Bitcoin-only during DeFi summer \u0026 the NFT mania\n– Bitcoin’s willingness to absorb Ethereum, Zcash \u0026 Namecoin use cases (the builders find amazing workarounds, but then the users don’t care because they’re HODLing)\n– Drivechains coming to Bitcoin, eventually. Now that a BIP300 hard fork is launching, it seems even less likely that Bitcoin will adopt the tech before the miners start starving\n– Bitcoin maximalists being the smartest people in the room. They’re not anymore, it’s been a decade since this was the case. \n\nWhat else was I right/wrong about?",
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}