Here is my bet in the #us vs #iran conflict:
Iran will escalate the situation between mid September and mid October.
Here is my logic:
It seems as if the economic sanctions are really biting Iran. The #irgc need #Trump to remove, or at least lighten the sanctions. Otherwise they face an uprising.
Their gamble will be that if they attack the US, the US will be forced to retaliate. This will push oil prices, and inflation, up. It will be a catastrophy for the GOP to go into elections with oil price high and inflation running loose. The IRGC hope Trump will do anything to avoid that and will be willing to cave to their demands.
For this plan to work they need enough time to negotiate a deal before the elections. If there is not enough time, Trump might think that the situation won't change fast enough to help the GOP in the elections. Instead if reaching an agreement he might increase the pressure.
Do it far enough from the elections and the US might take a risk and break the agreement. Or not feel the pain enough to come to an agreement.
This leaves is some where between the middle of September and the middle of October
Peace K 🪙
npub1ka…0ttwe
2026-08-21 12:54:19 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1kasmxhs5mln74klwkuttc3ae5tquwqaja6vz0j4yzkjw8d49pnrqm0ttwePublished at
2026-08-21 12:54:19 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Here is my bet in the #us vs #iran conflict:\n\nIran will escalate the situation between mid September and mid October.\n\nHere is my logic:\n\nIt seems as if the economic sanctions are really biting Iran. The #irgc need #Trump to remove, or at least lighten the sanctions. Otherwise they face an uprising.\n\nTheir gamble will be that if they attack the US, the US will be forced to retaliate. This will push oil prices, and inflation, up. It will be a catastrophy for the GOP to go into elections with oil price high and inflation running loose. The IRGC hope Trump will do anything to avoid that and will be willing to cave to their demands.\n\nFor this plan to work they need enough time to negotiate a deal before the elections. If there is not enough time, Trump might think that the situation won't change fast enough to help the GOP in the elections. Instead if reaching an agreement he might increase the pressure.\n\nDo it far enough from the elections and the US might take a risk and break the agreement. Or not feel the pain enough to come to an agreement.\n\nThis leaves is some where between the middle of September and the middle of October",
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