Using your percentages, it was always unrealistic imo to hope or expect any proportion of the 95% would move across to Nostr, simply because the 5% have felt this one-sidedness more acutely. This is why attempting to grow Nostr users was never going to work, it's simply not how people make decisions, which I think your comment supports.
However, it will be interesting to see how the 95% will respond in the future as the ever increasing one-sidedness in the mainstream services continues, which would appear to be what is happening.
quotingOK, got it.
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I have a loose hypothesis on that. It fits to nostr, bitcoin, austrian economics etc. There is a certain, small percentage of freedom lovers in society. The libertarian parties' election results all over the world are a rough estimate of this percentage. Around 1–5 or so. If such a party gets a better result, it's because they went into an alliance with some populists, eg. nationalists.
These freedom lovers are more likely to be the wolves, to use freedom tech, to place their liberties above their comfort. This applies to relatively free and rich countries. In other circumstances the percentage may change drastically, when people are put against the wall. But in times and places where comfort is easily available, at least 95% will choose comfort above freedom.